Russia hikes interest rate after ruble reaches new lows

 By 
Patrick Kulp
 on 
Russia hikes interest rate after ruble reaches new lows
A woman comes out of an exchange office with a sign advertising currency exchange rates in Moscow, Russia, Monday, Dec. 15, 2014. The ruble crashed through 60 to the dollar, trading at 60.33 by early afternoon. The falling price of oil â Credit: Pavel Golovkin

Russia's central bank jumped its key interest rate from 10.5% to 17% after the ruble suffered its steepest one-day drop in value since 1998 on Monday, according to Reuters.

The decision was reached during an emergency meeting held by policymakers in Moscow at around 1 a.m. local time Monday night. With low oil prices and sanctions plaguing the country's economy, the ruble plunged 11 percentage points against the dollar on Monday, bottoming out at about 67 rubles per U.S. dollar before a slight uptick to about 64.

The bank is hoping the hiked interest rates will stem the huge flow of capital out of the country by making depositing in a Russian bank a more attractive option. The weak currency means more expensive imported goods for Russia's consumers, leading to high inflation.

"This decision is aimed at limiting substantially increased ruble depreciation risks and inflation risks," Russia's central bank said in a statement.

Yet any relief the move provides the ruble will likely come at the expense of potential economic growth, which is generally spurred by lower interest rates. In its most recent forecast, released before the spike in interest rates, the central bank predicts that if the price of oil remains at $60 per barrel, the country's GDP will contract by between 4.5% and 4.7% next year, its most dire outlook yet.

Many experts agree that between economic sanctions prompted by Russia's role in the crisis in Ukraine and the plummeting price of oil, the country's economy is all but certain to slip into a recession next year. The decision to hike interest rates will likely push the country further towards recession.

Russia's economy grew 0.7% in third quarter, but mainly thanks to agricultural sector. Recession ahead. pic.twitter.com/wcyAnuKJBX— The EIU Europe (@TheEIU_Europe) December 15, 2014

Russia's ruble as rubble. pic.twitter.com/CORowBYu1p— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) December 15, 2014

With Monday's free fall, the currency has now lost nearly 50 percent of its value against the dollar since the beginning of this year, surpassing Ukraine's hryvnia to become the worst-performing currency of 2014 besides the cryptocurrency bitcoin.

Guess which crypto-currency did worse last year than the rouble? http://t.co/zQEaLDE9Dy pic.twitter.com/d1FZVytCLt— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) December 15, 2014

The world's worst performing currency! The ruble has now dropped over 48% against the US dollar this year - more than the hryvnia at 47.9%.— Howard Amos (@howardamos) December 15, 2014

The Russian ruble is now weaker than the Indian rupee. [$1 = 65.62 rubles] h/t @EllenBarryNYT pic.twitter.com/5VfTCmKD1B— Sadanand Dhume (@dhume) December 15, 2014

According to the Financial Times, spiking interest rates is a common tactic for emerging markets facing rapid currency depreciation. Turkey raised its interest rate on overnight loans by 4.25% earlier this year to stave off the declining value of the Lira. In 1999, Brazil similarly pushed up interest rates when faced with a huge drop in the value of the real.

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