The making and selling of cars is game theory on a grand scale—an ongoing exercise in executive brinkmanship based on two questions: What kinds of vehicles are all the other companies making and what kind should we make next? The answers aren't trivial. Launching a new car requires the kind of investment that makes starting, say, a social network seem like a cheap date.
This week, in frigid Detroit, is the annual unveiling of the car companies' biggest bets. They'll reveal their strategies in sleek, shiny new vehicles that the world—and their competitors—have never seen. Some will change a company’s fortunes for decades. Others hint at where the entire industry is heading. Not every car on display is equally portentous: The duds, and there are many, never even make it to the assembly line. When the official press "events" begin tomorrow, these are the five vehicles that will matter most.
Acura NSX
Acura, Honda’s blue-chip brand, makes vehicles that are arguably just as luxurious and refined as BMW's. Drivers, however, remain unconvinced. Acuras sell for about 20% less than BMWs do, and in spite of the price premium (or perhaps because of it), BMW still outsold Acura two-to-one in the U.S. last year. Enter the NSX, a space pod of technology and design, and what the the auto industry calls a “halo car.” The glow that emanates from its carbon fiber and computer-tuned engine refracts on all the other Acura models and helps dealers sell more of them for more money. At least, that’s the theory. We won’t know how that strategy pans out for Acura. The NSX won't be available until the late fall (rumored price: $100,000), and any effect it has may take longer to manifest. Either way, it won't stop auto writers from telling you a lot about the NSX this week.
Toyota Tacoma
For years, the Big Three didn’t make small pickups, in part because they didn’t want to cannibalize sales of their larger trucks. So Toyota, with its Tacoma, had the segment to itself until just a few months ago, when General Motors rolled out its Chevrolet Colorado and the GMC Canyon, all-new, modestly sized pickups. Thanks to some glowing reviews, combined monthly sales of those trucks hit 5,600 in December, almost 40% the sales volume of the Tacoma that month. If Toyota wants to keep its status as the only non-U.S. company making a dent in the truck business, it needs the new Tacoma to impress. That may not be as tall an order as it sounds. The Tacoma hasn't had a refresh since 2004, and the new styling is much less car-like, much more aggressive.
Volkswagen SUV
Unless one is driving a Golf, Volkswagen drivers aren’t feeling much fahrvergnügen these days—at least not in America. The brand’s U.S. sales dropped 7% in 2013, then fell another 8% last year. Volkswagen’s sedans and compacts are still fairly impressive; they just aren’t what Americans want these days. Small SUVs have been the fastest-growing segment in the U.S. of late and Volkswagen’s only offerings in the space were relatively expensive (see: Touareg) or not very well-liked (see: Tiguan). The company desperately needs to check this box to turn its fortunes around in America, and the concept car it unveils this week is intended to prime American demand. Unfortunately for Volkswagen, the big reveal would have been far more useful two years ago.
Mercedes GLE Coupe
In its quest to remain the best-selling luxury carmaker, Mercedes is giving its designers and engineers free rein. How else to explain its newest creation, a burly vehicle with the linebacker looks of an SUV and the graceful sloping roof of a performance coupe? It doesn't have the cargo space for a Costco run and won’t drive nearly as well as a low-slung sedan, but it looks kind of cool—at least some people must think so. BMW has been selling a similar model, the $60,800 X6, since 2008. Last year, U.S. buyers drove off in 4,200 of them, not a lot overall but significant for such a niche vehicle.
Ford GT