Hurricane Nate intensifies as it tracks toward Gulf Coast, bringing major surge threat
UPDATE: Oct. 7, 2017, 8:11 p.m. EDT Hurricane Nate made landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River at about 8 p.m. ET, as a Category 1 storm with 85-mile per hour winds, the National Hurricane Center said. The storm did not intensify as much as was forecast earlier in the day Saturday, but is still bringing life-threatening storm surge flooding to coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida, along with damaging winds and heavy rain.
The storm's fast movement -- at nearly 30 miles per hour at times -- set a record for the fastest forward motion of any hurricane observed in the Gulf of Mexico.
It's hard to believe that we're talking about another hurricane making landfall in the U.S., following the devastating trio of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. But, here we are. This time, the storm -- Hurricane Nate -- is a small, potent, and fast-moving weather system that is racing toward landfall in coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, or Alabama on Saturday night.
The storm has been intensifying steadily since Friday, becoming a hurricane overnight. Since it's still sweeping across the mild waters of the Gulf of Mexico, continued intensification is likely. Hurricane Nate is now forecast to make landfall as a Category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds of near 105 miles per hour.
Hurricane warnings along with storm surge warnings are in effect from coastal Louisiana eastward into the Florida Panhandle. While Hurricane Nate is significantly weaker, particularly as measured by wind speed, than the monstrous Category 4 and 5 storms that have decimated areas such as Puerto Rico and the Florida Keys this season, it still poses life-threatening risks.
The area where the center of the storm is forecast to come ashore -- between New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama -- is prone to major storm surge flooding during tropical storms and even weak hurricanes. Data from Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the strongest winds are confined to the eastern side of the storm, which will help maximize the storm surge potential in these areas.
Hurricane Nate will be nearing landfall around the time of high tide on Saturday night, likely bringing hurricane force onshore winds to the Gulf Coast at that time, thereby increasing the coastal flood threat.
The National Hurricane Center is predicting a reasonable worst-case scenario for storm surge flooding of at least 7 to 11 feet of water above ground level in parts of coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, with lower amounts of 4 to 6 feet in coastal southern Louisiana. Flooding is also likely well to the east of the storm center, including in Pensacola, Florida, because of the strong onshore winds that will pile water onto the coast.
Here is the Hurricane Center's key message on the storm surge threat from its 11 a.m. ET update:
Nate is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge flooding near and well east of where the center makes landfall, and a storm surge warning is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. Maximum flooding of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is expected in portions of southeastern Louisiana and along the Mississippi coast. Residents in these areas should immediately heed any evacuation instructions given by local officials.
Unlike with Hurricane Harvey, which spun over southeast Texas for days on end, this storm is absolutely roaring ahead, traveling at about 20 miles per hour. This will limit the heavy rainfall potential, though upwards of 10 inches of rain could still fall in some locations. The storm's rapid movement also means that tropical storm-force winds are likely to extend well inland on Sunday and Sunday night, potentially all the way to Atlanta.
After Hurricane Nate makes landfall on Saturday night or early Sunday, it will weaken as it moves northeast, eventually bringing heavy rain all the way to Maine by the middle of the week.
Andrew Freedman is Mashable's Senior Editor for Science and Special Projects. Prior to working at Mashable, Freedman was a Senior Science writer for Climate Central. He has also worked as a reporter for Congressional Quarterly and Greenwire/E&E Daily. His writing has also appeared in the Washington Post, online at The Weather Channel, and washingtonpost.com, where he wrote a weekly climate science column for the "Capital Weather Gang" blog. He has provided commentary on climate science and policy for Sky News, CBC Radio, NPR, Al Jazeera, Sirius XM Radio, PBS NewsHour, and other national and international outlets. He holds a Masters in Climate and Society from Columbia University, and a Masters in Law and Diplomacy from The Fletcher School at Tufts University.
