Pure-play online retailers have seen a 10% drop in revenue yield -- that is, the average amount of revenue brought in by each visitor -- in California since the state began collecting sales tax on purchases from online-only retailers on Sept. 15.
That's according to data compiled by Adobe [PDF]. Revenue yield for online-only retailers spiked 30% ahead of the tax implementation, as shoppers stocked up on goods now subject to the state's 7.25% sales tax rate.
State officials estimate that the new law should bring in more than $300 million in the next year alone, helping to turn around its current $20 billion deficit.
Meanwhile, click-and-mortar retailers -- that is, retailers who were already required to charge sales tax for online purchases because they operated in-state -- did not see a significant change in revenue yield over the period, except for a spike during Labor Day weekend, when many retailers ran sales.
Adobe examined 1.94 million visitors to 100 retail companies for the study, half of which were pure-play online retailers, and half of which were click-and-mortar retailers.
This chart maps the change in revenue for pure-play online retailers before and after the tax was implemented:
Here's the change in revenue yield (revenue/visitor) over that same period:
Click-and-mortar retailers did not see a significant change in revenue yield before or after the tax went into effect:
What does this mean for online-only retailers like Amazon? It's still too early to say. The sales tax change could very well help even the playing field for pure-play online and click-and-mortar retailers in the long run, circumventing "showroom" shoppers who would browse at stores and make purchases for less online. Others, like O’Reilly Media founder Tim O’Reilly, think the long-term effects will be negligible.
"Like so many others, I love the convenience of shopping at Amazon, the unparalleled selection, the great customer service, the ease of checkout, the low prices. I don’t need the added incentive of no sales tax to make me shop there," O’Reilly wrote in a public Google+ post last year.
Amazon collects sales tax in seven other states: Kansas, Kentucky, New York, North Dakota, Texas, Washington and Pennyslvania. The retailer will begin collecting sales tax in New Jersey and Virginia next year; in Indiana, Nevada and Tennessee in 2014; and in South Carolina in early 2016.