In its denial Facebook hinted at the projects that it is working on: "everything from an HTML5 version of the site to apps on major platforms to full Connect support with SDKs to deeper integrations with some manufacturers."
One of those (the HTML5 version of the site) is a no-brainer but welcome information; some mobile devices' browsers don't support Flash, which is utilized in some Facebook apps including the video player. The second item (Connect support) is an odd choice because Facebook has said that it will phase out Facebook Connect in favor of its Open Graph system. The deeper integration tidbit is the real meat in this statement.
Facebook went on to say: "Our view is that almost all experiences would be better if they were social, so integrating deeply into existing platforms and operating systems is a good way to enable this."
The developers working on Facebook's mobile projects are of high pedigree. As we said earlier, one is the creator of the astoundingly popular Facebook iPhone app and the other worked on Google's Chrome OS. These guys are probably not just working on bonus features for iPhone users and the like.
Let's Not Get Carried Away
Our guess is that Facebook is working on something bigger, but we're wary of declaring that it's working on its own mobile operating system. That space is highly saturated, and unless Facebook has a revolutionary plan to deliver mobile ads more effectively than Apple or Google's frameworks, the risk is too high for rewards so elusive.
The Facebook response that we broke is PR damage control over a leak — we'll buy that. But "deeper integration" is not that vague a concept. Facebook plans to work more closely with existing platforms, not create its own.
Picture a mobile initiative that integrates social contacts and ads based on user data, with Open Graph-like scale. This platform could operate inside Android and iPhone apps. That sort of thing is appropriate to the experience level of the people on the project, it's in keeping with Facebook's existing strategies and trends, and it doesn't fly in the face of Facebook's public statement on the matter.
We've seen others in the media say the Facebook phone is likely still real despite Facebook's denial because Google released similar statements when asked about a Google phone before Android was unveiled, but there's a logical fallacy there. Both companies made statements of denial using similar language, but the incidents are unrelated.