With voter registration over and absentee voting having already begun, Obama-supporting Facebook Pages like “Florida for Obama” and the Facebook Group “Florida for Obama 08” are extremely active in rallying fans and group members compared to the states that are already “decided." If you were to determine the winner based on Facebook activity alone, it would be Barack Obama. Fortunately for John McCain, online activity does not always equate to offline activity - like voting.
In order to gain a greater perspective on the online-offline correlation, below are results from the three largest swing states: Florida (27 electoral votes), Ohio (20 electoral votes) and North Carolina (15 electoral votes). The results come from Facebook, LinkedIn and Upcoming.
Facebook and LinkedIn Online Group Activity:
Search Results for Obama Florida vs. McCain Florida:
- Facebook Groups = Obama 194 vs. McCain 97
- Facebook Pages = Obama 1 vs. McCain 0
Search Results for Obama Ohio vs. McCain Ohio:
- Facebook Groups = Obama 245 vs. McCain 76
- Facebook Pages = Obama 1 vs. McCain 0
Search Results for Obama Ohio vs. McCain North Carolina:
- Facebook Groups = Obama 106 vs. McCain 37
- Facebook Pages = Obama 2 vs. McCain 0
Search Results for Obama vs. McCain in General on LinkedIn:
- LinkedIn Groups = Obama 41 vs. McCain 26
How do online efforts translate into the real world?
One can’t assume that online groups alone will be a major push for deciding the election. If we take the above concept one step further and analyze any Upcoming events in the online world, we can get a sense how they are mobilizing people:
Search Results for Obama Ohio vs. McCain Ohio Events:
- Facebook Events = Obama 11 vs. McCain 0
- Upcoming Events = Obama 156 vs. McCain 4
Search Results for Obama Florida vs. McCain Florida Events:
- Facebook Events = Obama 7 vs. McCain 0
- Upcoming Events = Obama 94 vs. McCain 2
Search Results for Obama Florida vs. McCain North Carolina Events:
- Facebook Events = Obama 4 vs. McCain 0
- Upcoming Events = Obama 51 vs. McCain 0
*All Facebook and Upcoming events targeted within one month
The direct correlation between “Online Groups” and “Offline Events” is an indication of the true value of social media promotion. While, Facebook, LinkedIn and Upcoming are just a few of the hundreds of social media sites being utilized, they represent a good portion of popular online activity for general public groups and events. Come November 4th, only then will we know if online efforts made a difference in the game-changing swing states.