Trends in Internet chatter have correctly predicted the winner of the Super Bowl for at least four years. And if the same correlation continues, it looks like Sunday will be a very happy day in Green Bay.
The Super Bowl team discussed most during the month of January ended up taking home the Vince Lombardi trophy every year since 2008, according to data collected by social media analysis company Infegy.
When the Pittsburgh Steelers played against the Arizona Cardinals in 2009, for instance, the Steelers were mentioned in Super Bowl conversations .48% more frequently than their opponent. Infegy did not collect data before 2008.
"I don't think more buzz means more wins, it just seems likely that people would be talking more about the team that they believe likely to be the victor," Infegy CEO Justin Graves says. "People predicting winners in their own conversations in forums on Fantasy football leagues, things like that."
The gap between online discussion of the Packers and the Steelers is smaller than between any two Super Bowl teams the company has analyzed. In Super Bowl discussions, Green Bay was mentioned 12.28% of the time. Pittsburgh was mentioned 12.02% of the time.
Even though the buzz factor is close, however, the Packers are trouncing the Steelers in the sentiment game. Conversations around the Packers were 78% positive in past month, compared with only 69% positive for the Steelers during the same period. If Graves's wisdom of the crowd theory holds true, the Packer's higher frequency of positive sentiment should bode just as well for the team as their slight lead in online buzz.
