The excitement is already very palpable. Applications are being reviewed with mostly positive feedback. The start-to-finish installation process for software add-ons, while stifled by Apple’s authentication server collapse, is unquestionably good. Some might say fantastic, even.
But who among the third-party set will win biggest as a result of the launch of the iPhone 3G? And a more crucial question still, What will become of strictly Web-based application and service development? You know, the ones focused on making the Mobile Safari-bound experience as elegant and convenient as possible?
In a piece published last week by Mashable, Don Reisinger argued that the absence of revenue models among Web apps will work to make then unsustainable, allowing Apple’s more structured App Store to enable developers to more effectively maintain themselves and their businesses on either side of the paid/ad-supported divide. (One ad network we profiled recently, Medialets, has already made known its intention to become the place to go for advertisements on applications. And even before Apple had officially launched its iPhone 2.0 software, users had purchased thousands upon thousands of dollars worth of applications, ranging from games to photo utilities to task managers. All said, the App Store looks to be a promising channel for many.)
But there’s one area of business that has made quite clear its desire to do on mobile devices what it has accomplished on VHS, DVD, and online video streams and downloads. And it is a market that Apple most definitely will not be green-lighting for its handhelds. That industry is sex.
Yes, Apple has said quite explicitly that no pornography-related applications will be allowed for sale or as freebies through its digital storefront. Those in the sex industry (which, on a global scale, totaled nearly $100 billion in 2006), will have to stick to Safari for any desired revenue. Or the iPod. Indeed, any video on the iPhone or iPod touch be formatted for playback in Quicktime.
The problem for porn there is that most streams are pushed via Adobe Flash or Windows Media. Adobe has not managed to secure a spot for Flash on either Apple’s iPhone or iPod touch. And Windows Media is more or less out of the question.
That leaves the porn industry in a tricky situation. If Web app usage declines as a result of native application growth, will the iPhone (or iPod touch) simply be a cleaner platform? Will companies in the sex industry have to deliver content on-demand to other handsets? Or will they find a way to employ the Mobile Safari’s connection to the Quicktime player to provide access to videos?
According to Jeremy Caplan of Time Magazine, who explored this very topic last month, AVN Media Network’s vice president of business development offered a rough estimate in the range of “a few hundred iPhone porn sites now in use.” Seems like a large number, yes? Sure, but it’s all about how much business those sites can do to determine their long-term validity. Otherwise, it’s nothing more than experimentation.
Such experimentation might be enough, though. Sites can offer mobile adjuncts that offer little or not revenue value but bring more viewers to their main websites when those viewers are “behind closed doors.”