Just a few weeks ago, I was delivering what amounted to a eulogy for Microsoft's current smartphone platform in this column, wondering aloud what an endgame for mobile Windows would look like.
At the time, it seemed like the company would need to pull a rabbit out of a hat in order to reverse its fortunes. But a new development -- one that was as unexpected as it was played down -- may not be the panacea that many are hoping for, but it does suggest that the Redmond, Wash.-based company has plenty of fight left before throwing in the towel.
Microsoft drops a bombshell
At a recent Windows Hardware Engineering Community summit in China, Windows chief Terry Myerson revealed a number of newsworthy tidbits about Windows 10, the unified operating system whose universal nature will allow developers to code apps which run on a host of different device classes. Headlining the announcements was the expected summer release timetable, followed by free upgrade plans for current users, along with an update on the long-anticipated Windows phone from Lenovo.
At the very end of the news items, almost as an aside, came word of a unprecedented trial that Microsoft is undertaking "in partnership" with popular Chinese handset manufacturer Xiaomi. According to Myerson, a select group of Xiaomi Mi 4 owners (power users, he calls them) will be invited to test out a custom Windows 10 ROM on their devices. Devices that ship running not Windows out of the box, but Android.
Let me restate that, so the full implications of such a program are clear: Microsoft has prepared a build of Windows 10 for phones, that is capable of powering Android hardware; this is not just an emulator or even a dual-boot option, but an actual replacement for the stock Android firmware.
It should be clear why this potentially explosive piece of news was relegated to an afterthought. The idea that Microsoft could make an end-run around manufacturers (many of whom are its partners in other device classes) and offer to turn their handsets into de facto Windows phones by appealing directly to the consumer, flies in the face of everything you thought you knew about the mechanics of the consumer electronics industry.
Microsoft releasing a Windows 10 ROM for Android phones that you'll be able to flash is a great move. A no-obligation trial of the ecosystem— Steve T-S (@stroughtonsmith) March 18, 2015
Worth noting Xiaomi was very keen to point out that it is not partnering with Microsoft on Windows 10 experiment, just helping with testing— Jon Russell (@jonrussell) March 18, 2015
In fact, this development has so much potential to disrupt the status quo, that even Microsoft's so-called partner in the endeavor, market leader Xiaomi, made a point of noting that it was simply providing functional assistance, and was not engaged in a partnership in the traditional sense.
Strange bedfellows
It's not exactly clear what Xiaomi gets out of its involvement with this potentially disruptive project -- cash? goodwill? quid pro quo? -- especially since the custom ROM which ships pre-loaded on the Mi 4 gives its owners access to the company's services -- access which will presumably disappear once the devices have been flashed to Windows.
I bet Xiaomi is getting patent benefits from Microsoft by agreeing to put Windows 10 on Mi 4 smartphones. http://t.co/wwHPjwz1io— Michael V. (@mvakulenko) March 19, 2015
As for Microsoft, there seem to be several reasons why Xiaomi made a good choice for the trial. For one, customers play a big part in the development of MIUI, Xiaomi's custom flavor of Android, by delivering feedback on the weekly builds that are released in beta. These users are comfortable flashing their phones, hungry for the latest features, and accustomed to providing crucial reports about their experiences.
Secondly, and perhaps even more practically, Microsoft very likely does not want this build seeing a more widespread release (although chefs at XDA-developers and other communities will surely adapt it for all sorts of unintended uses). By undertaking this project in China, it should serve as a barrier to usage by non-Mandarin speakers. Finally, exposing Chinese mobile enthusiasts to Windows 10 may encourage them to take a more serious look at the platform for future purchases.
A Xiaomi Mi 4 with Windows Phone wouldn't be bad at all.— Peter Bright (@DrPizza) March 18, 2015
Rumor, clarified
For the last few months, Microsoft was rumored to be on the verge of making a substantial investment in Cyanogen, Inc, makers of Cyanogenmod, a popular alternative ROM available for a host of Android devices. At the time, the alleged investment didn't make a great deal of sense, and the latest reports claim that Redmond will not in fact be participating in Cyanogen's next round of funding.
But taken in the context of this Xiaomi pilot program, it now seems completely logical that the two companies were engaged in talks -- and probably still are, in some capacity or another. If Microsoft is in fact exploring the possibility of a more widespread rollout of its Windows ROM, no one is more familiar with the mechanics and challenges than Cyanogen.
Who needs Windows?
This brings us to our next question: if they build it, will people come? In other words, how likely (or unlikely) would Microsoft be to see any significant market penetration with a third-party Android ROM? After all, these are people who purchased an Android device because... they wanted an Android device, not a Windows Phone.
If the perceived dearth of Windows phone apps is indeed the biggest deterrent keeping consumers away from the platform, then offering it as a flashable alternative doesn't seem like it would be all that effective; seemingly more promising would be following the BlackBerry path of bringing Android app compatibility to the existing platform and hardware.
Plus, there's the not-insignificant obstacle of actually getting people to flash their devices, which is both technically-challenging as well as, in many cases, warranty-breaking. It's hard to imagine swarms of Android owners taking the risk of rooting and flashing their phones just to play around with a new and different operating system.
A reason to hope
That being said, maybe Microsoft wouldn't need Cyanogen-level adoption to consider such a program a success. After all, its new mantra hinges on simply getting people to use its services, regardless of what platform they're running on. Looking at the situation from that perspective, any increase at all in potential customers is a net positive, even if overall market share doesn't shift much due to the adopters.
One thing Microsoft does have going for it is the optimization of its code, which has historically allowed Windows Phone to run more smoothly on lower-spec'ed devices than comparable Android handsets. This could be quite a compelling selling point, if marketed properly. Imagine that all of a sudden your year-old, mid-range smartphone could perform not just better than it does now, but better, even, than when you bought it.
At first boot,if phones display "do you want to install #Android or #Windows" I'm sure more than 4% will choose Windows, more than currently— Rudy Huyn (@RudyHuyn) March 18, 2015
For now, though, such a scenario is just a pipe dream, extrapolated from a pilot program that even Microsoft itself is not keen on highlighting. There are a million ways that this initiative could die a quick death, meaning that the path to Windows-on-Android is paved with obstacles and landmines.
However, if the company can somehow pull this off without alienating partners and confusing consumers, it seems like a unique way to let people test drive a platform that its fans swear by. At the very least, the Xiaomi Experiment proves that Redmond is not afraid to think outside the box when it comes to the crucial mobile space -- and in this case, that could end up benefiting the entire category.