Tonight President Barack Obama will lay out his strategy to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the Islamic State.
The U.S. military is already conducting airstrikes on Islamic State positions in Iraq. Now, Obama is reportedly ready to authorize airstrikes on Islamic State positions in Syria, expanding the operation against the radicals into new territory.
In the planned speech, scheduled for 9 p.m. ET, Obama will try to present a vigorous strategy only days after he told reporters he didn't have one. But don’t expect boots on the ground just yet.
3 things to listen for in Obama's speech
1. The end-game
Expect Obama to deliver an outline of the military strategy that includes articulation of an end-game. If the U.S. is going to strike inside Syria, for example, how can that be done without helping the murderous regime of Bashar Al-Assad, the ostensible enemy of the Islamic State?
Fighting insurgents is "messy and slow, like eating soup with a knife," as T.E. Lawrence, the British explorer and army officer, once wrote. And years in Iraq certainly showed that a purely military campaign cannot defeat radical groups.
The so-called Anbar Awakening -- which sought to co-opt Al Qaeda-linked groups by (financially) supporting the local Sunni tribes so that sheiks could offer jobs in a destitute region -- was partially successful because it took away the financial incentive to fight.
Defeating the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, as the administration seems to realize, is as much a financial and ideological fight as it is a physical battle.
2. How much it will cost and where the money will come from
The U.S. has spent an average of $7.5 million a day on military operations in Iraq since the air strikes began in August. That money is coming out of the Overseas Contingency Operations fund, which has a $79.4 billion annual budget, Pentagon Press Secretary Adm. John Kirby said on Aug. 29.
5 U.S. strikes Mon & Tue near Haditha Dam; destroyed/damaged 14 vehicles and 2 anti-aircraft artillery pieces. Total strikes to date=153— Maj. Brian Fickel (@CENTCOMCGPAO) September 9, 2014
The Obama administration is preparing a possible request for a multibillion-dollar package to execute his latest strategy, according to Bloomberg.
3. An outline of further diplomatic advances
American officials have already announced the formation of an international coalition to combat the militants. The alliance includes nine other countries — Britain, France, Australia, Canada, Germany, Turkey, Italy, Poland and Denmark.
Figuring out how to get Saudi Arabia, which has funded radical Sunni rebels in Syria, to join the effort against the Islamic State, however, is more pressing than getting the help of Denmark.
In addition, the Obama administration is trying to find a delicate way to define Turkey's role. The Muslim nation has been reluctant to take firmer action against the Islamic State, which is holding 49 Turkish diplomats hostage.
Charting a course?
Obama has come under criticism for not having a more clearly defined strategy, most recently after he told reporters during a White House briefing: "We don't have a strategy yet."
Brilliant cartoon on Obama's "we dont have a strategy yet" #ISIS pic.twitter.com/OaPVejZc5F— Aboud Dandachi (@AboudDandachi) August 31, 2014
He has also been criticized for not acting sooner as Sunni rebels fighting the Assad regime in Syria became more radicalized, fueling the growth of the Islamic State.
"We don't have a strategy yet" - not only describes Obama admin & ISIL now, but 6 years of Obama admin & al Qaeda/terrorism.— Stephen Hayes (@stephenfhayes) August 28, 2014
In a recent interview with Jeffrey Goldberg in The Atlantic, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the failure to arm more secular rebels in Syria “left a big vacuum, which the jihadists have now filled.”
The White House –- and the president himself –- has pushed back against such criticism, reportedly referring to that line of argument as “horseshit.”
However, Obama isn't yet ready to put troops on the battlefield against the Islamic State. As Josh Rogin and Tim Mak reported for the Daily Beast, a vote to authorize Obama's war against the Islamic State is "near impossible to muster" before Congress breaks for the midterm elections.
"Caught between their desire to preserve their constitutional war-making authority and the fear of political backlash, Congress is paralyzed and leadership has no intention of forcing the issue before the break."
Hey everybody, simmer down. "President Obama is prepared to authorize airstrikes in Syria" means he hasn't yet authorized them.— Josh Rogin (@joshrogin) September 10, 2014