President Barack Obama's administration on Friday ended a program to train up to 15,000 moderate Syrian rebels to fight Islamic State extremists before the program had really begun.
The $500 million Defense Department program--announced more than a year ago--was initially sold as the best way for the United States to fight radicals on the ground, and the money was primarily meant for a group of moderate rebels known as the Free Syrian Army.
But the program was quickly shown to be better in theory than practice as many moderate Syrian rebels believed their main focus shouldn't be ISIS but the Assad regime which has killed many more people than ISIS. Even when U.S.-backed moderates did fight extremist groups, they were often easily outmanned and outgunned.
Though the training program was meant to lead the American ground effort in Syria's north, it never got a foothold. The Pentagon was tepid in its outreach to Syrian rebels and Syrian rebels grew wary of the U.S. commitment.
Nicholas Heras, a Middle East Security Program researcher at the Center for a New American Security, told Mashable that many Syrian rebel groups believed the program "did nothing for them."
And that was the assessment even before Russia began its airstrikes in Syria in aid of Assad, further complicating the situation on the ground.
"Now with the Russians, you've got questions on every side," Anthony Cordesman, an expert on Middle East security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Mashable.
At a news conference last week, Obama suggested America's strategy in Syria would focus on supporting Kurdish forces who have fought the Islamic State with some success in the northeast.
"It didn't mean we gave up all support of ground forces," Cordesman said.
However, there's a pronounced risk that the conflict in Syria hardens into something more intractable as the various Syrian factions get further backing by countries with opposing geopolitical aims.
By ending the plan to train moderate rebels, the U.S. gives up any pretense of influence on the ground in Syria's north, the stronghold of the Islamic State. Meanwhile, Russian airstrikes are likely to solidify Syrian regime positions in the west, and increased U.S. support of the Kurds gives the Kurds more power in the east.
At the news conference last week, Obama criticized Russian and Iranian involvement in Syria, saying their strategy won't work but will only "get them stuck in a quagmire."
It is clear that the U.S. has sought to stay out of the conflict, focusing instead on airstrikes and the training of local forces. But in trying to avoid the quagmire at all costs, the American administration may have helped create it.