Are the most popular songs the ones that take out all the prizes?
Spotify has predicted who will win Australia's biggest music awards, the ARIAs, based on how popular an artist or song is according to local streaming data gathered from Sep. 2014 to Sep. 2015.
The streaming service doesn't release local data, so we've crunched their publicly available global numbers to see if their predictions are as solid as they seem. All will be revealed when the ARIA Awards take place on Nov. 26.
Best Female Artist
Courtney Barnett
Jessica Mauboy
Meg Mac
Megan Washington
Sia – Spotify’s Prediction
Sia, this category's predicted winner, has a mammoth 22 million global monthly listeners on Spotify.
Trailing behind is Melbourne's Courtney Barnett (735,496); bluesy favourite Meg Mac (223,792); Australia's R&B queen, Jessica Mauboy (187,306); and self-proclaimed lion tamer, Megan Washington (20,207).
With a total global monthly listener count of 23,166,801 -- Sia takes a 94.9% share.
Best Group
AC/DC
5 Seconds of Summer – Spotify’s Prediction
Hermitude
Tame Impala
The Preatures
5 Seconds of Summer lead with 5 million monthly listeners across the globe, but this category is a tight race.
A not-too-distant behind is rock legends AC/DC (3.9m), psychedelic purveyors Tame Impala (2.4m), hip-hop favourites Hermitude (899,891) and Sydney indie group The Preatures (372,787).
Predicted winner 5 Seconds Of Summer take 39.6% of the total listenership -- but you can hear AC/DC clipping the heels of the teen favourites with a cut of 30.9%.
Best Male Artist
#1 Dads
Daniel Johns
Guy Sebastian
Jarryd James
Vance Joy – Spotify’s Prediction
"Riptide" singer/songwriter Vance Joy leads with 5.8 million monthly global listeners, who so happens to be more popular in London, New York and Los Angeles than he is in Sydney, Australia.
Behind there's the soulful Jarryd James (1.7m); Australia's Eurovision representative Guy Sebastian (980,950); former Silverchair frontman Daniel Johns (225,110); and the self-explanatory #1 Dads (129,042).
Breakthrough Artist
Conrad Sewell
Courtney Barnett
Gang of Youths
Jarryd James – Spotify’s Prediction
Meg Mac
Newcomer Jarryd James can certainly punch his weight with 1.7 million monthly listeners around the world.
However it's less than Kygo collaborator Conrad Sewell, who clocks in at 3.5 million listeners, a light year away from singer-songwriters Courtney Barnett (735,496) and Meg Mac (223,792); plus indie outfit Gang of Youths (67,646).
Album of the Year
Courtney Barnett - Sometimes I Sit and Think, And Sometimes I Just Sit
Flight Facilities - Down To Earth
Hermitude - Dark Night Sweet Light
Tame Impala - Currents
Vance Joy – Dream Your Life Away – Spotify’s Prediction
Vance Joy's hit single, "Riptide" has reached 290 million streams globally thus far, with a total monthly listenership of 5.8 million.
Tame Impala (2.4m) and Sydney dance duo Flight Facilities (1.2m) sit behind, in hope.
Song of the Year
Conrad Sewell - "Start Again"
Grace - "You Don't Own Me feat. G-Eazy"
Iggy Azalea - "Trouble feat. Jennifer Hudson"
Jarryd James - "Do You Remember"
Marlisa - "Stand By You"
Nathaniel - "Live Louder"
Peking Duk - "Take Me Over feat Safia"
Sia – "Elastic Heart" – Spotify’s Prediction
The Veronicas - "You Ruin Me"
Vance Joy - "Georgia"
Sia's "Elastic Heart" has 220 million global streams, with nearest competitors being Vance Joy and his track "Georgia" with 44.6 million hits and heavyweight Iggy Azalea with her song "Trouble" at 29.6 million plays.