In social media's Iowa caucus predictions, Twitter nails it

 By 
Marcus Gilmer
 on 
Original image replaced with Mashable logo
Original image has been replaced. Credit: Mashable

As the votes continue trickling in from Monday night's Iowa caucus, Twitter came out on top in terms of social media predictions.

No prediction is perfect but Twitter got it closer than most by projecting Ted Cruz at the top of the GOP heap, ahead of Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, based on mentions on the platform. While the percentages were off, the results still managed to pick the winner even as Trump was ahead in many polls.

Original image replaced with Mashable logo
Original image has been replaced. Credit: Mashable

@moneyries Key is the week-to-week momentum too not just ranking. Showed dems narrowing; Cruz/Rubio rising; Trump weakening.— Adam Sharp (@AdamS) February 2, 2016

As for the Democratic side, predicted a comfortable win for Clinton though Sanders made it an incredibly close race, falling short by the slimmest of margins.

Original image replaced with Mashable logo
Original image has been replaced. Credit: Mashable

Google Trends also indicated the rise of Rubio and Cruz's surge based on search data over the last few days.

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trends.embed.renderWidget("US_cu_A-CrYFIBAAD6AM_en", "fe_line_chart_384b1a32-4339-4777-9fe8-699100a9c209", {});

Google also came much closer on the Democratic side, as Sanders searches surged in the final days, indicating his closing of the gap with Clinton.

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Finally, Facebook's data isn't used for prediction but does show the amount of conversation - both positive and negative - taking place around each candidate. (So your hateful comments about Trump carry as much weight as your aunt's praise of the billionaire.)

That data showed a surge in conversation around Bernie Sanders, something that came to fruition in his spirited support in Monday's tight vote totals. According to the social media platform's data, of the conversation on Facebook around Presidential candidates from midnight to 9 p.m. Central Time, Sanders dominated at 42 percent with Trump a distant second at 22.4%. And among only Democrats, Sanders carried a whopping 75% of the conversation.

There were also similar results in terms of new page likes during a 24-hour period from Sunday to Monday.

Original image replaced with Mashable logo
Original image has been replaced. Credit: Mashable

On to New Hampshire.

UPDATE: This story was updated on Monday, February 8, 2016 to more accurately reflect data provided by Facebook.

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