Tropical Storm Erika was a minimal storm as of Wednesday morning, with maximum sustained winds of just 45 miles per hour. It is cruising toward an encounter with parts of the Caribbean and Puerto Rico. The question on every Floridian's mind, though, is what the storm will do next.
Here's the bottom line -- we don't know.
Based on the storm's weak status, a hostile atmosphere that will prevent short-term strengthening of the storm, and computer models that are flipping back and forth like Senator Bernie Sanders' hair in a strong breeze, forecasters won't know what this storm is likely to do with confidence for at least another 24 hours -- or maybe longer than that.
Some computer model projections are downright frightening, though. That much is true. But this doesn't mean they're correct. Take the HWRF model, for example (pronounced "H-Warf").
This is a computer model that was recently upgraded. It has a high resolution that enables it to simulate the inner workings of an incipient storm more accurately than models that divide the world into larger grid boxes.
It is portraying T.S. Erika as a clear and present threat to parts of the U.S. by consistently showing that the storm -- which is currently struggling in a hostile environment with wind shear and dry air trying to rip the storm apart -- will intensify rapidly in about three days from now.
The computer model, along with a few others, shows the storm as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane located near Miami or West Palm Beach by Sunday or Monday.
But other computer models disagree strongly. These are also traditionally reliable models, such as the Global Forecast System model, or GFS, which show the storm getting sheered to smithereens before it reaches Florida, thereby posing little threat to the Sunshine State.
Then there's the middle-of-the-road solution from the European model, which has a reputation for accuracy in many, though not all, situations like this (it was not the most accurate model forecasting Atlantic tropical cyclones last year, the GFS was). The European model is also projecting a more robust storm approaching the Southeast coast by early next week.
So, if you're sitting in a Miami high-rise condo along the beach right now, or really anywhere from South Florida to North Carolina, it's time to review your hurricane preparation plan and map out what you'll do if this storm strengthens and heads your way. The forecast is too low confidence to narrow details down with much specificity, however.
But it never hurts to prepare.
As the National Hurricane Center put it in an understated forecast discussion on Wednesday morning, "The intensity forecast remains very uncertain." A more accurate discussion might have said, "This storm is giving us serious heartburn."
As for the storm track, the official Hurricane Center forecast shows the storm approaching Miami as a hurricane by 2 a.m. ET on Monday morning, but the "cone of uncertainty" is quite large that far out.
As Hurricane Center forecasters said Wednesday, "Given the uncertainty, this is a good time to remind users that average NHC track forecast errors over the past five years are 180 miles at day four and 240 miles at day five."