With every presidential election cycle, the race for the Oval Office becomes less a marathon and more an 18-month slog through an obstacle-filled swamp.
While an early poll surge provides a boost to a campaign in its early stages, political history is littered with candidates who peaked early before flaming out all together.
Most recently, in 2011, Michelle Bachmann claimed the Iowa straw poll, with many anointing her as the GOP front-runner thereafter. But it wouldn't last. Bachmann quickly fell behind, just as Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, and Rick Perry would after climbing to the top spot in various polls during the race's early stages.
It's now Donald Trump's turn in the spotlight. The real estate mogul has rocketed to a large early lead in several polls, the most noteworthy of which is an ABC News/Washington Post poll, taken over a four-night period both before and after his comments on U.S. Senator John McCain, that gives him nearly a quarter of the votes in a crowded field.
JUST IN: ABC/WP Poll. The Front Runner - @realDonaldTrump Trump 24 Walker 13 Bush 12 Huck 8 Rubio 7 Paul 6 Poll taken Thu-Sun (1/2)— Jonathan Karl (@jonkarl) July 20, 2015
And in Huffington Post's composite polling tool, which uses 19 various phone and online polls, Trump surged from tenth place around June 1 to first place in polls that go right up to this weekend. That's when Trump made his comments about McCain.
It would seem these poll respondents are the only ones who don't consider Trump toxic. As he was rising in the polls, multiple television networks and businesses have parted ways with the real estate mogul over his increasingly aggressive comments on immigration.
But even though Trump has survived those challenges, the attack on McCain may make him radioactive within his party. Mocking a veteran's war record is a step too far within the party. The poll respondents echo this feeling as his post-McCain comment numbers in that ABC/Washington Post poll took a severe dip on Sunday.
From ABC's report:
Trump’s support was 28 percent in this survey’s first three nights of polling. While the sample size of registered Republicans on Sunday is quite small, he dropped to single digits that day.
The entire ABC/Washington Post poll report can be read here.
But -- @realDonaldTrump's support was "conspicuously lower Sunday than in the three previous days" according to @LangerResearch (2/2)— Jonathan Karl (@jonkarl) July 20, 2015
While the HuffPo composite puts Trump in the overall lead, he still trails Wisconsin governor Scott Walker for the top of the heap in the Republican Iowa caucus race. Walker has more traction with spirited Tea Party voters who, despite Trump's apparent embrace of issues close to their core, aren't impressed with the New York billionaire.
And Trump would have a bigger hill to climb even if he were to survive the GOP bloodletting: the general election, where the ABC/Washington Post poll has him a distant third, if he ran as an independent, behind both Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush.
Also in the ABC/WP poll: Hillary: 50 Jeb: 44 And if Trump runs as an independent -- Hillary 46 Jeb 30 Trump 20— Jonathan Karl (@jonkarl) July 20, 2015
For the long-term, polling wizard Nate Silver says that Trump's support will fade -- "or at least, given his high unfavorable ratings, it will plateau, and other candidates will surpass him as the rest of the field consolidates," Silver adds.
The New York Times' Nate Cohn echoes the sentiment: "Donald Trump’s surge in the polls has followed the classic pattern of a media-driven surge. Now it will most likely follow the classic pattern of a party-backed decline."
Re: the Trump poll numbers: July ’11: Michele Bachmann led GOP polls. August: Rick Perry led with 27%. October: Herman Cain reached 27%.— Chris Wilson (@realchriswilson) July 20, 2015