Typhoon Koppu is barreling toward the island of Luzon in the Philippines, where it is forecast to hit land over the weekend as a Category 4 storm and then refuse to leave. Because of its slow movement, the storm could dump a catastrophic amount of rain through Tuesday, with totals in some mountainous areas potentially reaching as high as 50 inches, and as much as a foot or more falling across a wide area.
The storm, named Lando in the Philippines based on the local weather agency's naming system, may undergo a period of rapid intensification on Saturday morning local time, with several computer models predicting that the storm will become an extremely intense Category 4 storm prior to making landfall on Saturday night.
The most likely landfall location as of early Saturday morning local time was forecast to be near Casiguran, a small city in Aurora Province, which is on the northeastern coast of Luzon. The exact path of the storm could change before it makes landfall, however, with any shift in track toward the south likely to bring more significant winds and rains to the Manila area.
Storm surge flooding of 2 meters (7 feet) or more, and winds greater than 170 kilometers per hour, or 105 miles per hour, can be expected near where the center of the storm crosses the coast, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, or PAGASA. If the storm does reach Category 4 strength, however, the winds will be higher, potentially greater than 140 miles per hour.
The PAGASA is posting its latest warnings and advisories on its Facebook page.
From its landfall location, Typhoon Koppu is going to make an agonizingly slow trek across the northern Philippines. Up to a foot of rain may fall in the capital of Manila, a densely populated, low-lying city that is prone to flooding.
Heavier rains will fall further north, with 15 to 50 inches not out of the question depending on where the heavy rain bands form and how quickly they move. Luzon's complex topography will make landslides and mudslides likely, and rainfall amounts highly variable depending on elevation. Higher elevations will see greater rainfall totals.
With the first rains from the storm already beginning in eastern Luzon, it's conceivable that for some residents of northern Luzon in particular, it won't stop raining until late Tuesday or sometime on Wednesday, local time. The long-lasting heavy rains could produce devastating rainfall totals in a country that is prone to flooding.
