LONDON -- It might be time to head to the seaside. Parts of the UK could experience temperatures of up to 25 degrees Celsius this week.
Contrary to media hype and public conversation, though, the UK is not in store for a three-month heatwave during which London will sizzle more than Ibiza, according to the UK Met Office. In a statement on its website, the Met Office cautions that although the outlook through June does favor milder than average temperatures, that's not the same as forecasting a three-month heatwave.
Headline writers have had a field day with the forecast, comparing Britain’s weather to Istanbul, France, Spain, Italy and even Hawaii.
Through Wednesday, a tropical maritime air mass is forecast to bring unseasonably warm air in from the Atlantic Ocean, originating between the Azores and Bermuda, which would nudge temperatures up in southern parts on Tuesday and Wednesday.
This is how that air mass looks when viewed through a computer model, with the unusually mild air showing up in red and orange and cooler than average air in blue:
"Warm air flowing up from the southwest will combine with high pressure, bringing settled conditions and sunny spells for many," the Met Office said in a blog Monday.
We could see highs of 24/25 °C in the south on Wednesday due to a tropical maritime air mass http://t.co/3mheQEK7Ub— Met Office (@metoffice) April 13, 2015
The spell of unusually mild weather, follows on from Friday, which was the warmest day of the year so far, with the Met office saying the temperature in St James's Park in central London hit 21.9 C.
And what about the upcoming summer? Can we expect more heat or will it be washout?
The Met Office says it's too early to forecast based on current weather, but says its three-month outlook shows that above average temperatures are more likely than below-average or average conditions. But take it all with a pinch of salt.
"The outlook is essentially the scientific equivalent of factoring the odds on a horse race and, just like a horse race, the favourite doesn’t always win," it says.
A separate forecast from the International Institute of Climate and Society at Columbia University in New York, which also shows the probabilities of temperature outcomes, shows that the UK has a higher probability of milder conditions than average during the April through June period, compared to average or below average conditions.