Here's some good climate news, but don't get too excited
Global carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels stayed flat in 2015 for the third straight year despite economic growth, a new assessment has found. However, this pause in the growth of emissions is likely to be short-lived unless new emissions policies are accelerated, scientists say.
The report, from researchers at the University of East Anglia and the Global Carbon Project, found that the world has slowed its annual growth rate of emissions from about 2.3 percent per year prior to 2013 down to a projected 0.2 percent in 2016.
However, before you take this new information and pronounce global warming solved, two key facts are important to consider. One is that much of the slowdown is due to lower economic growth in China, according to co-author Glen Peters, a researcher at the and Environmental Research (CICERO) in Oslo.
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Also, the climate doesn't respond to the rate at which emissions are rising -- what matters is that we're still emitting greenhouse gases in the first place, which is what is causing global temperatures to increase and is having a host of damaging consequences.
The report notes that the amount of carbon dioxide in the air will continue rising until emissions are reduced to zero, which no major emitter, such as the U.S., China or India, is currently on course to do. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere exceeded the symbolic milestone of 400 parts per million in 2016, which is the highest level in human history.
The good news in the report, Peters told Mashable in an interview, is that the pause in emissions growth provides an opportunity to take steps that would ensure that there is not another spike in carbon pollution.
“You could see it as an opportunity to sort of lock in those gains,” Peters said, noting that it's possible that China could see its carbon emissions peak several years earlier than its target date of 2030.
The report, released at the U.N. Climate Summit in Marrakech, Morocco on Monday, shows that emissions growth held below 1 percent in 2015 despite global economic growth of 3 percent.
“This is a great help for tackling climate change but it is not enough," said Corinne Le Quéré, the director of the Tyndall Center at the University of East Anglia.
"Global emissions now need to decrease rapidly, not just stop growing.”
On a country by country level, the report found that in China, to world's top emitter, carbon pollution actually decreased in 2015 by 0.7 percent, compared to a 5 percent increase the previous year.
Peters attributed this trend to a slowdown in China's economy as well as increased use of renewables like wind and solar.
The U.S. also reduced its emissions by 2.6 percent in 2015, thanks to declining coal use.
However, other countries are seeing their emissions grow as they expand access to electricity. India, for example, showed a 6.3 percent increase in carbon emissions in 2015, the report found.
Globally, countries still are not yet on track to meet the temperature targets agreed to under the Paris Climate Agreement, which obligates countries to cut emissions enough to limit global warming under 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, below preindustrial levels by 2100.
Andrew Freedman is Mashable's Senior Editor for Science and Special Projects. Prior to working at Mashable, Freedman was a Senior Science writer for Climate Central. He has also worked as a reporter for Congressional Quarterly and Greenwire/E&E Daily. His writing has also appeared in the Washington Post, online at The Weather Channel, and washingtonpost.com, where he wrote a weekly climate science column for the "Capital Weather Gang" blog. He has provided commentary on climate science and policy for Sky News, CBC Radio, NPR, Al Jazeera, Sirius XM Radio, PBS NewsHour, and other national and international outlets. He holds a Masters in Climate and Society from Columbia University, and a Masters in Law and Diplomacy from The Fletcher School at Tufts University.
