El Niño's parade of 'atmospheric river' storms is finally coming to California
El Niño: What took you so long?
All winter long, drought-weary Californians have been waiting for the record strong El Niño event to spawn a parade of moisture-laden storms that would pinwheel their way toward the state from the Pacific Ocean. That looks like it will finally materialize this weekend, lasting through most of next week.
It's not yet clear how much the parade of storms, including at least two bona fide "atmospheric river" events, will help the state climb out from under the burden of a monumental precipitation deficit accrued during the worst drought on record.
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However, it's likely that the snowfall in the Sierra Nevada Mountains will be measured in feet -- possibly exceeding 6 feet in some spots, while lower elevations, particularly in the San Francisco Bay area, may receive close to six to twelve inches of rain by the time the storms are over.
The heavy rainfall and mountain snows will follow a record warm and dry February in several parts of California, giving many Californians weather whiplash.
The storms are likely to bring the threat of flooding, mudslides and rockslides from northern to central and possibly southern California, too.
The first storm system will reach the coast on Saturday, while the second, weaker storm, hits Sunday and Monday.
The moisture fetch that these storms will tap into, like firemen plugging a hose into a hydrant, will stretch from California to Hawaii and beyond. Within this vein of moisture will be a narrow corridor of air that is so rich with water vapor that meteorologists refer to it as an "atmospheric river."
Such atmospheric river events are known to provide much of California's wet season rainfall, as well as its worst flooding.
Flights from the West Coast to Hawaii and Asia next week may take longer than usual given that the jet stream will be screaming from southwest to northeast at more than 200 miles per hour, cutting groundspeeds for westbound aircraft but dramatically speeding up those traveling eastward.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), up to half of the yearly precipitation in Washington, Oregon and California occurs in just a few atmospheric river events.
To get a sense of how much moisture such air currents transport, consider that a strong atmospheric river can carry an amount of atmospheric water vapor about equal to 7.5 to 15 times the average flow of liquid water at the mouth of the Mississippi River, NOAA scientists have found.
To improve their understanding of these phenomena, NOAA and NASA, along with academic research institutions, are flying aircraft and gathering observations on the ground to study the ongoing El Niño and its impacts.
The big question facing California residents is how much these upcoming storms will help to alleviate the drought conditions, which are the worst to hit the state in at least the past millennium, based on peer reviewed research.
It is almost certain that the storms will not replenish the groundwater that farmers and other water users have withdrawn to meet their needs, nor is it likely to completely eliminate the drought in many other ways.
However, some help -- perhaps even significant help -- is better late than never.
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Andrew Freedman is Mashable's Senior Editor for Science and Special Projects. Prior to working at Mashable, Freedman was a Senior Science writer for Climate Central. He has also worked as a reporter for Congressional Quarterly and Greenwire/E&E Daily. His writing has also appeared in the Washington Post, online at The Weather Channel, and washingtonpost.com, where he wrote a weekly climate science column for the "Capital Weather Gang" blog. He has provided commentary on climate science and policy for Sky News, CBC Radio, NPR, Al Jazeera, Sirius XM Radio, PBS NewsHour, and other national and international outlets. He holds a Masters in Climate and Society from Columbia University, and a Masters in Law and Diplomacy from The Fletcher School at Tufts University.
