Southern California bracing for an 'off the charts' storm
Something is going to happen in Southern California on Friday that hasn't happened in at least six years, possibly longer. It's going to rain a whole, heckuva lot, and that rain is going to be accompanied by a wide range of other hazards.
It's all part of one of the most intense storms to strike the region since before the state's epic drought began in 2012, which is likely to bring several inches of rain on average to areas from Santa Barbara southward to San Diego.
Higher rainfall totals, likely into the double digits, will occur in mountainous areas, with heavy snow falling in the higher peaks of Los Angeles and San Diego counties, among others.
This will lead to landslide and mudslide concerns as heavy rain runs off already saturated hillsides, and flash flooding issues even in urban areas. The highest mudslide risks will be across areas that have burn scars from wildfires.
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The storm, which combines an unusually intense low pressure area with a firehose of moisture whose hose stretches back for more than 2,000 miles, way out to near Hawaii, will rage throughout the day on Friday and into Saturday in one of the most populated and storm-averse areas of the country.
At its peak, winds are likely to gust greater than 50 miles per hour in the Los Angeles and San Diego metro areas, which will cause extensive air travel delays and down trees and power lines. Some areas could see winds approach or exceed 100 miles per hour, particularly in the higher elevations of San Diego County.
High wind warnings have been issued for higher elevation areas around Los Angeles and all of San Diego County, where officials are bracing for sustained winds of tropical storm force, or 39 miles per hour or greater, along with higher gusts as the storm center nears the coast.
The National Weather Service has issued a dizzying array of watches and warnings to cover all the storm impacts, which can be found on weather.gov.
According to the agency's predicted rainfall amounts, some spots could see a two-day rainfall total that ranks within the top 10 all-time heaviest two-day rain events, but this is not expected for most spots.
According to the Weather Service's San Diego forecast office, a storm of this intensity at such a low latitude in the state is extremely rare, or "off the charts when looking at the past 30-year record," the agency said in a forecast discussion.
Fortunately, the heaviest precipitation from this particular storm is not hitting Lake Oroville in north-central California, where nearly 200,000 people were ordered to evacuate earlier on Sunday due to fears that a part of Oroville Dam's infrastructure -- the nation's tallest -- could fail. More rain is expected in that area though during the next five days.
However, the footprint from the larger barrage of storms associated with that moisture pipeline, which is known to meteorologists as an "atmospheric river," will have a multi-hazard footprint that would make any national political candidate envious -- sweeping states from California northward to Washington and east to the swing states of Colorado and New Mexico.
The Friday through Saturday storm is just the latest in a string of Pacific weather systems that have beaten back the state's epic five-year drought in many areas, although groundwater supplies that take many years to recharge remain depleted.
Parts of the state have seen record rainfall within what's known as a "water year," a period of time that includes both a wet and dry season between Oct. 1 through Sept. 30. This is remarkable considering there is no El Niño present, and such climate phases are typically associated with the truly blockbuster winters in the Golden State.
Droughts typically do end in deluges in California, but global warming is also increasing the odds of precipitation extremes at both ends of the scale, creating a climate characterized by feast or famine. This is already putting more strain on antiquated infrastructure, such as the Oroville Dam, that was not designed with human-caused climate change in mind.
"Where we really butt up against the climate system is in the extreme events," said Noah Diffenbough, a climate researcher at Stanford University.
"I think the evidence is clear that global warming has increased the probability of these kinds of conditions," he said, referring to the swing from drought to flood, and increasing tendency for atmospheric rivers to be milder than they used to be, bringing rain at many higher elevations rather than snow.
Andrew Freedman is Mashable's Senior Editor for Science and Special Projects. Prior to working at Mashable, Freedman was a Senior Science writer for Climate Central. He has also worked as a reporter for Congressional Quarterly and Greenwire/E&E Daily. His writing has also appeared in the Washington Post, online at The Weather Channel, and washingtonpost.com, where he wrote a weekly climate science column for the "Capital Weather Gang" blog. He has provided commentary on climate science and policy for Sky News, CBC Radio, NPR, Al Jazeera, Sirius XM Radio, PBS NewsHour, and other national and international outlets. He holds a Masters in Climate and Society from Columbia University, and a Masters in Law and Diplomacy from The Fletcher School at Tufts University.
