Extreme weather — not politicians — convinces Americans that climate change is real

Americans find today's climate science increasingly convincing, and a damaging mix of exceptional drought, storms, and record-breaking heat is the reason why.

The results of a new survey -- conducted in November 2018 by the University of Chicago's Energy Policy Institute and the research organization The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research -- found that nearly half of Americans said today's climate science "is more convincing than five years ago, with extreme weather driving their views."

Overall, seven in 10 Americans reported that climate change is happening.

“The results of the survey demonstrate that most Americans consider climate change a reality and acknowledge that human activity is at least somewhat responsible,” Trevor Tompson, director of The AP-NORC Center, said in a statement.

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The poll gathered responses from just over 1,200 American adults, who were selected randomly from every state in the country. The random sample of Americans gave their answer over the phone or via the web.

While 48 percent of Americans found today's modern climate science more convincing, 36 percent answered that their climate views haven't changed. Just 16 percent said that the climate science "has become less convincing."

U.S. government atmospheric, marine, and earth scientists, however, have little doubt that the climate is experiencing profound change, and human activity is the dominant cause, as illustrated by recent reports from U.S. government scientists.

"This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization," the congressionally mandated Fourth National Climate Assessment, states.

"This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century," the report adds.

Of the nearly half of Americans who said climate science has become more convincing, three-fourths of them attribute their changing views to the nation's recent bouts of extreme weather. In 2017 and 2018 alone, the U.S. experienced record-breaking heat, record-breaking flooding, record-breaking wildfires, and the relentless continuation of widespread drought over a huge swath of the Southwest.

Political leaders, however, had a comparatively smaller influence over changing how Americans felt about climate science. Eighteen percent of those surveyed responded that the views of political leaders were an "influential factor" in their changing views.

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President Trump, who has by far the most influential reach on Twitter, consistently denies or jokes about global warming. Additionally, powerful Republican politicians continue to publicly sow doubt about climate science. Yet according to this recent poll, their efforts may be significantly overshadowed by the damaging realities of extreme weather.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found that in 2017 the U.S. "experienced a historic year of weather and climate disasters," with 16 separate billion-dollar disasters.

In total, 71 percent of Americans today reported that climate change is happening, which is similar to a 2017 poll from the same research organizations. As is well understood, most of the doubt about human-caused climate change comes from Republican voters. Of Americans who said climate change is happening, just five percent of Democrats said it can be explained by natural changes in the environment rather than human activity, as compared to nearly 30 percent of Republicans.

This is consistent with 40 years of sustained Republican suspicion about the sciences, environmental historian James Turner previously explained to Mashable.

But for the majority of Americans that do acknowledge the climate is changing, more are becoming convinced by mainstream, globally-agreed-upon science. After all, it's difficult to ignore extreme, pummeling weather.