Hurricane Florence is on its way to the East Coast. Here's what to expect.
Despite facing heavy winds late last week, Hurricane Florence beat the odds.
The hurricane, which is now whipping up winds at 130 mph, is a Category 4 storm and forecast to make landfall later this week on the coast of the Carolinas.
“Florence is quickly becoming a powerful hurricane,” The National Hurricane Center said in a statement Monday morning. "Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence has continued to rapidly strengthen.”
If it makes landfall in North Carolina as a Category 4 storm, it will be the largest storm to hit the state since Hurricane Hazel in 1954.
Over the weekend, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia all declared a state of emergency in preparation for the storm because weather models have nearly hit a consensus on where the storm is headed.
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“The most likely scenario is that it hits the North Carolina coast,” Weather Channel meteorologist Dale Eck said in an interview.
Not a lot of models have the storm veering away from the predicted course since meteorologists aren’t seeing any factors like wind shear or weather fronts that would weaken or deflect the storm, Eck explained.
In fact, forecasts are predicting that Florence could be "Harvey-like."
Last year Hurricane Harvey, rapidly intensified right before making landfall in south Texas, where it then dumped a record 60 inches of rainfall in some areas.
“Once Florence moves inland, it’s going to dump tremendous amounts of rain on the Carolinas and Virginia,” Eck said.
“If I could explain it with goal posts, the farthest south I’d go is Savannah, Georgia and the farthest north is Cape Hatteras off the uppermost coast of North Carolina.”
Some models are already predicting 3 feet of rainfall. Which among other things, means people need to start preparing now.
An evacuation has already been ordered for Cape Hatteras, but don't wait for hurricane watches and warnings to make a plan, Eck said.
Major flooding is predicted for a vast swath of land from Roanoke, Virginia to Charlotte, North Carolina.
“If you can go south, go west and south,” Eck suggested.
Obviously the forecast at this point isn’t 100 percent certain, but even the deviant courses aren’t very far off from the main prediction.
Typically hurricanes this far out in the Atlantic have been deflected off the coast and spun out to sea. However, that's the least-likely scenario with Florence, Eck said.
Eck suspects this to be partly, due to Earth's warmer atmosphere.
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Historically, hurricanes that approach the East Coast have been driven away by the jet stream that stretches across the northern United States after dropping down from Canada.
Since the summer’s heat extends a little longer now, the jet stream might come down in October rather than mid-September.
Basically, Hurricane Florence is coming in hot.
If it turns north, it will only do so after making landfall, Eck said. Where it goes after making landfall is where the path becomes uncertain again.
Meanwhile, Eck said everyone needs to turn their attention to the Atlantic.
“The whole tropical environment has caught on fire,” he said.
There are three storms that meteorologists have their eyes on and there’s likely more to come.
The most threatening one is Hurricane Isaac which is expected to make landfall later this week in the Windward Islands -- which includes Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent, and Grenada -- before heading toward the central part of the Caribbean.
“It’s not a large or strong hurricane, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical storm before it hits those islands,” Eck said, but it serves as a reminder that we are now in peak hurricane season.
