Nintendo forecasts a huge first year for Switch 2 sales

Based on how hard it's been to lock down a Nintendo Switch 2 preorder, just about anyone could predict a big launch for the hotly anticipated new game console. In its latest earnings report, Nintendo itself predicted a giant first year for the Switch 2.

In its latest official sales forecast, released on Thursday, Nintendo said it expects to sell 15 million Switch 2 consoles before the end of March 2026, per CNBC. That date may seem random, but Nintendo's corporate fiscal calendar runs through March, so that's Q4 for the Japanese gaming giant.

For context, 15 million units would be one of the fastest starts for a console ever. Per Polygon, the original Switch came in at 14.8 million units in a similar timespan after its launch, while the PS5 (which was admittedly hurt by COVID supply chain issues) hit 13.4 million in that same window.

Fascinatingly, some industry analysts like Daniel Ahmad from Niko Partners actually see the 15 million units figure as conservative by Nintendo, and with good reason. While the hardware itself is impressive and there's a solid enough software lineup to match, President Donald Trump's tariff policies have thrown the general economic state of the world into question. The Switch 2's preorder in the U.S. had to be delayed by a couple of weeks because of tariffs, and though the announced price point of $450 is unchanged at the time of publication, the recent Xbox price hikes show that the gaming industry is not immune to large-scale price increases due to economic uncertainty.

With that in mind, it's entirely possible that Nintendo is low-balling itself and the Switch 2 will be an even bigger hit than predicted. Or, perhaps, many gamers will be avoiding big purchases over the next several months. Everything is on the table.