2018's hurricane season will be active, but probably not as bad as last year
On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its forecast for the looming 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, and it'll be an active one.
Forecasters say that there's a 70 percent chance that the season will be active with hurricanes, but it's unlikely that we'll see the extremes of 2017, when six major storms (which have sustained destructive winds of at least 111 mph) roared through the Atlantic.
"Last year was extremely active," Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in an interview. "It was one of the strongest seasons on record."
This coming year, NOAA's analysis of long-term climate trends in the Atlantic Ocean, the temperature of the ocean, and other factors, don't add up to conditions that would stoke an extreme hurricane season.
"Right now we're not seeing any strong climate signals that say the season would be as strong as last year," said Bell.
But, NOAA is seeing the signal for a season that is either "normal" or "above normal." There's just a 25 percent chance that the season will be "below normal."
For perspective, the rare 2017 season saw 17 named storms (winds higher than 39 mph), six of which were major hurricanes of Category 3 or above, like hurricane Harvey and Irma last year.
Bell said that a "normal" season would be 10 to 12 named storms, with five to six total hurricanes, one or two of which would be major, devastating cyclones (think Hurricane Harvey or Irma).
There's a reasonable chance, about 35 percent, that these storm numbers and intensities could be punched up a little more, however, and enter the "above normal" spectrum.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, though Bell notes the peak of the season is in August, September, and October. For this reason, NOAA will produce an updated forecast in early August.
The 2018 season begins as many areas are still reeling from the 2017 pummeling. Recovering from Hurricane Harvey alone has a price tag that exceeds $125 billion, according to NOAA. Puerto Rico is still in the process of recovering from Hurricane Maria, with more than 14,000 people still without power on the island, according to an ABC report.
There are some 80 million Americans that live in hurricane territory, notes Bell, so he hopes people start preparing. This means getting flood insurance, having an evacuation plan, downloading the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) app, and heeding warnings.
Since 1995, the Atlantic has experienced a high amount of hurricane activity said Bell, in large part due to a decades-long climate trend occurring in Atlantic, called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), in which warmer waters produce stronger storms.
Some studies also suggest that as human-caused climate change worsens, extreme weather events could become more frequent and severe.
Mark was the science editor at Mashable. After working as a ranger with the National Park Service, he started a reporting career after seeing the extraordinary value in educating people about the happenings on Earth, and beyond.
He's descended 2,500 feet into the ocean depths in search of the sixgill shark, ventured into the halls of top R&D laboratories, and interviewed some of the most fascinating scientists in the world.
