Storm chasers, get ready: The first severe weather outbreak of 2018 begins Tuesday
The weather in the Plains states has been anything but normal lately. Oklahoma -- a state synonymous with tornadoes -- didn't have a single twisters through April 30, a new record. Instead, states from Texas north to Nebraska have been dealing with dust storms and sprawling, fast-moving grass fires as unusually dry weather has taken its toll on the region.
That tornado and precipitation drought changes on Tuesday, as a complex series of storm systems unleashes several rounds of severe thunderstorms across the region.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) -- the arm of the National Weather Service responsible for issuing severe thunderstorm outlooks -- issued a "moderate risk" outlook for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. In the outlook, the SPC highlighted a small area of Kansas at greatest risk of storms that could bring large hail, damaging winds, and a few potentially strong tornadoes.
"Tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong, very large hail, and damaging winds will be possible," the SPC stated on its website.
Severe thunderstorms are also expected to flare up in Nebraska and Iowa on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Other areas, outside of Kansas, are also at risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, even if forecaster confidence is lower. These places include Texas and Oklahoma, northward into Iowa.
One limiting factor for storms, and a forecasting wild card, is the recent dryness that has contributed to the dire fire weather conditions in the past several weeks.
Fires singed more than 350,000 acres in Oklahoma, killing more than 1,000 cattle. Fires are still burning in Oklahoma and Kansas today, at the same time the atmosphere is threatening to unleash a totally different type of hazard.
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While moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has flowed northward into the heart of what is commonly referred to as "Tornado Alley," the dryness of soils in these states could act to inhibit the formation of severe storms.
The threat of severe weather will ramp up on Wednesday and linger into Thursday as a series of storms dives into the Southwest, and moves across the Plains and Midwest.
By Friday, it's quite possible that Oklahoma will have recorded its first tornado of the season.
While tornado season usually peaks during the next few weeks, the same weather pattern responsible for the extraordinarily chilly April across much of the U.S. helped put a lid on severe storm activity up until now.
Mother Nature has a lot of catching up to do if the season is going to turn out to be close to average.
Andrew Freedman is Mashable's Senior Editor for Science and Special Projects. Prior to working at Mashable, Freedman was a Senior Science writer for Climate Central. He has also worked as a reporter for Congressional Quarterly and Greenwire/E&E Daily. His writing has also appeared in the Washington Post, online at The Weather Channel, and washingtonpost.com, where he wrote a weekly climate science column for the "Capital Weather Gang" blog. He has provided commentary on climate science and policy for Sky News, CBC Radio, NPR, Al Jazeera, Sirius XM Radio, PBS NewsHour, and other national and international outlets. He holds a Masters in Climate and Society from Columbia University, and a Masters in Law and Diplomacy from The Fletcher School at Tufts University.
