Massive heat dome to scorch the Southwest, could smash longstanding records
An unusually severe heat wave is projected to roast the Southwest beginning late this week and lasting into next. At the peak of the heat, Phoenix may come close to its all-time record high temperature of 122 degrees Fahrenheit, with extraordinary heat in Las Vegas and Death Valley, California as well.
Even Los Angeles could hit 100 degrees on Sunday and Monday.
The heat wave will come courtesy of a huge bulge, or ridge, in the jet stream that is going to set up across the South Central U.S. and progressively intensify.
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Based on computer model projections, the high pressure area, which will pump warm, relatively dry air into the Southwest, may set records for a specific meteorological parameter (geopotential height anomaly) that helps measure the unusualness of high pressure ridges such as this one.
Residents of the Southwest are accustomed to hot weather, particularly the dry heat that can occur prior to the annual summer monsoon season, when conditions are more humid and showers and thunderstorms are common.
However, this heat wave will be extreme, and the National Weather Service is warning it is dangerous, given the risk of heat-related illnesses such as heat stroke.
Phoenix has only hit 120 degrees Fahrenheit or higher three times before, and the forecast high on Monday is just that -- 120.
The sprawling desert city's all-time record high temperature could even be met or exceeded during this heat wave, though that's not a sure bet. Other all-time records are also in jeopardy, including a high of 117 degrees Fahrenheit in Tucson, and 124 degrees in Yuma.
Phoenix has had four straight record highs so far this month, and recorded the earliest 115-degree reading since record-keeping began there in 1895, according to Bob Henson of Weather Underground.
In general, temperatures will run about 20 degrees above average across the Southwest, and excessive heat watches are in effect in Arizona, New Mexico and parts of California.
Above average temperatures will also be found to the northeast, into Colorado, Utah, Texas, Kansas and then dangerously hot and humid conditions are likely for the Southeast early next week as well.
Once again, record highs are crushing record lows this year
So far this year, record highs in the U.S. are far outpacing record lows, which is a gap that has widened in the past several years.
According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, there have been 12,061 daily record highs tied or broken so far this year, compared to 1,892 daily record lows during the same period.
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The increasingly imbalanced ratio of record highs to lows is an indicator of how climate change is altering the weather in favor of more warm extremes across the country.
This trend is likely to continue, and even grow worse, if emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels continue apace.
A study published Tuesday in the journal Climatic Change found that a business-as-usual emissions path would mean that by 2061-2080, summers in large parts of North and South America, Central Europe, Asia and Africa would have a greater than 90 percent chance of being warmer than any summer in the historic record.
In other words, this means that virtually every summer would be as warm as the hottest seen to date.
Andrew Freedman is Mashable's Senior Editor for Science and Special Projects. Prior to working at Mashable, Freedman was a Senior Science writer for Climate Central. He has also worked as a reporter for Congressional Quarterly and Greenwire/E&E Daily. His writing has also appeared in the Washington Post, online at The Weather Channel, and washingtonpost.com, where he wrote a weekly climate science column for the "Capital Weather Gang" blog. He has provided commentary on climate science and policy for Sky News, CBC Radio, NPR, Al Jazeera, Sirius XM Radio, PBS NewsHour, and other national and international outlets. He holds a Masters in Climate and Society from Columbia University, and a Masters in Law and Diplomacy from The Fletcher School at Tufts University.
