Earth's streak of record warm months is coming to an end... but it will be back
The planet is temporarily ending its streak of record warm global monthly temperatures, according to data released Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), as well as other figures NASA published Monday.
However, given the increasing influence of long-term global warming, such streaks -- including even longer ones than what just occurred -- are becoming more likely with time.
According to NOAA, September was the second-warmest such month on record, with global average surface temperatures coming in at 0.89 degrees Celsius, or 1.60 degrees Fahrenheit above average for the month. This means September 2016 was 0.03 degrees Celsius, or 0.07 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than September of last year.
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This ranking ends the record-breaking streak of record warm months (yes, even the streak broke a record) at 16.
"A few months after the end of one of the strongest El Niños in at least the past half century, this month [September] effectively snapped the 16-month streak of record warm monthly global temperatures," NOAA said in its monthly climate report.
Separately, NASA found that September was the warmest such month on record, but it too noted that the monthly departure from average was lower than in previous record warm months seen this year and during 2015.
The streak of record warm months in NASA's database is just 11 months, but this is because the two agencies use different methods to analyze global temperatures from thousands of measuring stations and ocean sensors, which provides a way to ensure that errors are caught.
Although the rankings differ slightly, both agencies show similar trends, with near-record warmth continuing as the oceans and atmosphere adjust after an unusually strong El Niño event in 2015 and 2016.
Such events can boost already higher global average temperatures by extracting more heat from the oceans and distributing it into the atmosphere.
According to NOAA, no land areas experienced a record cold month. Europe and Asia were both record warm during September, and Africa was second-warmest with North America coming in third, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).
The only area with well below average temperatures was western Australia, the agency found.
Record warm year?
According to NOAA, 2016 is virtually guaranteed to be in the list of top five warmest years, and is likely to beat 2015 for the title of the warmest year.
If each month from October through December were to match its 1998 monthly values, then the year would rank as the second-warmest on record, NOAA found. However, if each month instead were to match the 21st Century monthly average, then it would be the warmest year.
When compared to the average between 1881 to 1910, which is closer to the preindustrial climate, this year appears likely to come out at least 1 degree Celsius, or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, above average. This finding, which comes from the nonprofit research and journalism organization Climate Central, is significant, since world leaders are working to try to hold global warming to under 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, through 2100.
This is a goal that many scientists say is becoming less and less feasible over time, given the current pace of greenhouse gas emissions.
NASA has said as recently as Monday that the year is nearly certain to be the warmest on record according to its data, which is similar but not identical to NOAA's.
The last record cold year on Earth was in 1916, and the last record cold month on the planet was February of 1985.
Andrew Freedman is Mashable's Senior Editor for Science and Special Projects. Prior to working at Mashable, Freedman was a Senior Science writer for Climate Central. He has also worked as a reporter for Congressional Quarterly and Greenwire/E&E Daily. His writing has also appeared in the Washington Post, online at The Weather Channel, and washingtonpost.com, where he wrote a weekly climate science column for the "Capital Weather Gang" blog. He has provided commentary on climate science and policy for Sky News, CBC Radio, NPR, Al Jazeera, Sirius XM Radio, PBS NewsHour, and other national and international outlets. He holds a Masters in Climate and Society from Columbia University, and a Masters in Law and Diplomacy from The Fletcher School at Tufts University.
