This state could prove whether Cruz-mentum is real

After Ted Cruz took decisive wins in Kansas and Maine, narrowing Donald Trump's lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, he suggested he was the best and only chance Republicans have to stop Trump.

Tuesday's primary in Mississippi will prove whether voters believe that's true.

"The tide is turning on Trump," said Rick Tyler, a former Cruz spokesman-turned-MSNBC contributor. "Voters have begun to decide or come to the same conclusion that the Cruz campaign has been talking about for a while, which is Cruz is the only candidate who can beat Trump."

If Cruz wins Mississippi, it would break Trump's winning streak in the Deep South primary states, and will help cement him as the anti-Trump.

Mississippi is perhaps the most promising of the three states that vote this week for Cruz. 

It's a state his campaign has worked aggressively, and his efforts there have been boosted by a close loss in Louisiana. There, Cruz lost the early vote to Trump but narrowly won ballots cast on Election Day, bringing the race within 4%.

This Tweet is currently unavailable. It might be loading or has been removed.

Mississippi, a state with little polling, will prove whether Cruz's near victory in Louisiana was a product of stellar organizing by his campaign or whether we have seen peak Trump.

"We don’t have early voting here," said Henry Barbour, a Mississippi Republican strategist and nephew of former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour. "That may play to Cruz’s advantage in Mississippi, because I think there’s been a lot more talk about why people can't trust Donald Trump over the last couple weeks. So I think that’s probably peeled a few votes off of Trump."

On Monday night, the eve of the Mississippi primary, Cruz picked up the endorsement of Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant — who was just re-elected in November 2015. 

This Tweet is currently unavailable. It might be loading or has been removed.

Anti-Trump Republicans have also begun to spend significant amounts of money to run ads attacking Trump's business record and changing positions on abortion and gun control.

"There’s an erosion," Phillip Stutts, a Republican strategist based in the South, said of Trump's support. "I think it caught people off guard and the question is, is this an anomaly or a trend?"

After his wins, Cruz has been forcefully making the case that he is in the best position to defeat Trump — and urged Republican voters to head to his campaign. 

Cruz now trails Trump, 303 delegates to 390 delegates, with Marco Rubio and John Kasich lagging far behind, according to FiveThirtyEight delegate estimates. 

This Tweet is currently unavailable. It might be loading or has been removed.

Still, while Republicans say there's a growing chance that Cruz could outperform expectations in Mississippi on Tuesday, there are factors that could make a Cruz comeback too difficult to pull off.

In Mississippi, an "open primary" allows any registered voter who wishes to vote Republican in the primary to do so. That's likely to help Trump, who counts a large contingent of independents who don't traditionally participate in primaries among his base.

In Louisiana, where Cruz surged to a close second place, only registered Republicans could vote in the primary — cutting out that large Trump support base from the process.

"I think he’s closing the gap," Stutts said. "Do I think he can make up the difference over eight days, whether it’s in Mississippi, Michigan, Florida and Ohio next week? It’s going to be hard; but I'm telling you, there’s momentum behind this now that I haven’t seen yet."

Have something to add to this story? Share it in the comments.