Get ready for another storm: Tropical Storm Nate is forming, to target Gulf Coast
After the most energetic September on record in the Atlantic Ocean basin, with three monster storms making landfall in the U.S. or its territories, it's clear that the hurricane season is by no means over.
In fact, things are heating up again. A tropical depression has formed in the southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. The system is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. If it does so, it would be named Nate.
The center of the storm is forecast to move across northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras through Thursday night, before emerging again over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea. Torrential rainfall is forecast for Nicaragua's mountains in particular, potentially exceeding 2 feet.
The National Hurricane Center is predicting that Tropical Storm Nate will thread the needle between the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba, allowing it to continue to intensify slowly over time.
The outlook for the storm is worrisome for the Gulf Coast, because computer models show it becoming better organized while moving to the north, near or over parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. The Hurricane Center is forecasting that the storm will emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday, where it would encounter water with high ocean heat content that could allow it to intensify.
"Other than land interaction between 24-36 hours, environmental conditions look conducive for intensification of the depression," the NHC wrote in a forecast discussion. This next sentence is particularly troubling, given how quickly storms have intensified so far this season.
"Rapid intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm and deep waters...," the NHC said.
Here's the Hurricane Center's best advice for storm-weary Gulf of Mexico residents: "Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials."
Because the storm is so weak right now, computer models are having trouble pinpointing a most likely landfall location, if indeed it does hit the U.S. However, most models show a general motion to the north-northeast once it emerges in the Gulf of Mexico, and it could intensify into a hurricane as it moves toward somewhere between northeastern Texas and Florida.
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One point with this storm is that, statistically speaking, the odds do not favor another Category 5 hurricane that will decimate everything in its path. We've already seen two such storms this season -- Hurricanes Irma and Maria -- along with another Category 4 storm -- Harvey -- which inundated coastal Texas with more than 5 feet of rain -- the most ever recorded from a tropical storm or hurricane in the U.S.
This doesn't mean that Hurricane Nate cannot become a major hurricane, with Category 3 intensity or greater, but it would be unusual if it does so. There are signs, though, that October and November could be busier months for Atlantic hurricanes than average, given that ocean waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been trending cooler with time, indicative of the possible onset of a La Niña event.
Hurricane seasons with a developing La Niña in the Pacific tend to be more active, particularly because wind shear is lower over parts of the Atlantic.
Andrew Freedman is Mashable's Senior Editor for Science and Special Projects. Prior to working at Mashable, Freedman was a Senior Science writer for Climate Central. He has also worked as a reporter for Congressional Quarterly and Greenwire/E&E Daily. His writing has also appeared in the Washington Post, online at The Weather Channel, and washingtonpost.com, where he wrote a weekly climate science column for the "Capital Weather Gang" blog. He has provided commentary on climate science and policy for Sky News, CBC Radio, NPR, Al Jazeera, Sirius XM Radio, PBS NewsHour, and other national and international outlets. He holds a Masters in Climate and Society from Columbia University, and a Masters in Law and Diplomacy from The Fletcher School at Tufts University.
