Democrats say Trump is bad but that Cruz may be worse
As Donald Trump continues his march toward the GOP presidential nomination, Republicans are growing increasingly concerned about the party's chances of capturing the White House.
But while conventional wisdom dictates that either of the Democratic candidates would beat Trump in November, there's another candidate whom many Democrats would rather face: Sen. Ted Cruz.
If any of the remaining four Republican candidates have a shot at overtaking Trump for the nomination, it's Cruz — who trails Trump by fewer than 100 delegates and is in a close second in national primary polls.
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And many Democrat's say it's Cruz — the ultra-conservative Texas senator who has built his brand on ideological purity — who would have the hardest time building a winning coalition in November.
"Ted Cruz is a politician, and the easy people to run against this cycle are politicians," said Mary Anne Marsh, a Massachusetts-based Democratic strategist. "When you add to that that every one of Ted Cruz’s policies is to the right of the right of the right, he's to the right of almost everyone in this country. I think it's very hard for him to win."
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A gamble some don't want to take
Observers from both parties say Trump has a slim chance for victory come November. Nearly every poll shows Trump losing to either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in the fall, largely thanks to his lack of support among Hispanics and women. And the inflammatory rhetoric and violence at his rallies, observers say, could galvanize moderates and get Democrats to the polls.
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However, some Democrats are concerned about the challenge posed by Trump's unconventional campaign.
Trump's unusual coalition — which includes traditional Republicans, angry independents as well as working-class white voters in swing states such as Ohio — defies traditional voting patterns.
Strategists like to identify the likeliest voters on both sides to tailor their messaging and tactics accordingly. And since they base their campaigns on data and historical trends, that will leave them flying mostly blind.
"When you play poker against someone who's never ever played before, you have no idea if they're bluffing; if they have no idea what they're doing, or if they have a strong hand," said Mark Nevins, a Democratic strategist from Pennsylvania. "It makes it impossible to really run an effective campaign because none of the traditional rules of politics and campaigning apply."
Why Democrats say Cruz is easier to beat
Polling in general election match-ups currently shows Cruz would be a much more competitive candidate than Trump against either Clinton or Sanders.
Polling averages show Clinton-Cruz in a virtual tie while Sanders edges Cruz by single digits.
But Democrats say Cruz's conservative record and traditional campaign style would make running a race against the Texas Senator more predictable.
"I'm not sure, actually, that Cruz will be any less problematic than Trump will be"
"I think the problem is, we’re thinking of Ted Cruz now, we're not thinking of Ted Cruz in November, and I'm not sure -- actually -- that Cruz will be any less problematic than Trump will be," said Fred Yang, a Democratic pollster who helps run the NBC/WSJ poll.
Cruz has tailored his message to self-identified "very conservative" voters, and his primary victories have been bolstered by high turnout among voters in that category, according to exit polling.
But Cruz would need to build a bigger coalition, inclusive of independent-minded voters and minorities in swing states such a Florida, Virginia and Colorado, to win.
And Cruz's staunch opposition to issues such as immigration reform, abortion and same-sex marriage would make it challenging, if not impossible, for Cruz to sway those voters to his side.
"[Cruz is] convinced the reason why Republicans have lost in the last two presidential elections is because there were 2 or 3 million conservatives who did not come out to vote," said Nathan Gonzales, a non-partisan political analyst. "And I think he’ll be messaging in a General Election to try to get those conservatives to come out to vote, instead of trying to broaden the Republican message."
Republicans who oppose Cruz's bid, including the former GOP presidential candidate Sen. Lindsey Graham, have said as much.
"If you're a Republican and your choice is Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in a general election, it's the difference between being poisoned or shot — you're still dead," Graham told CNN in February.
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The debate over which candidate may be harder for the Democrats to beat may be moot by Wednesday morning, however.
Even if Trump loses in Ohio in Tuesday, victories that same day in Florida, North Carolina and Illinois could make him virtually unstoppable.
It's a frightening prospect to some.
"I think there are a lot of Democratic operatives who sort of instinctively think Trump is easier to beat," said one national Democratic strategist who works on House races on condition of anonymity. "But, my God, I don’t want to gamble with the future of our country on that."
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Emily Cahn is a political reporter at Mashable. Prior to Mashable, Cahn spent nearly four years at Roll Call, where she covered House and Senate races and congressional shenanigans. She has also been a copy editor at The Washington Post, and interned at The Hill, the Houston Chronicle and CBS News when she was a student at The George Washington University. Aside from being a political junkie, Cahn loves dogs and experimenting with cooking. Follow her on Twitter @CahnEmily, where she posts pictures of her family's two misbehaved poodles.
