With Paris Agreement pledge, Trump shows why 2016 is the most important climate election yet
Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump pledged on Tuesday to renegotiate the Paris Climate Agreement to make it, in his words, more "fair" to the U.S.
Speaking of the Paris Agreement in an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, Trump said: "I will be looking at that very, very seriously, and at a minimum I will be renegotiating those agreements, at a minimum. And at a maximum I may do something else."
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"But those agreements are one-sided agreements and they are bad for the United States," he said.
Reuters reported that Trump doubts China, which is the world's top emitter of greenhouse gases, will meet its pledges under the agreement to peak its emissions by 2030 and dramatically scale up the use of renewable energy technologies such as solar and wind power.
"Not a big fan because other countries don’t adhere to it, and China doesn’t adhere to it, and China’s spewing into the atmosphere," Trump said.
If Trump were to be elected and then seek to renegotiate the Paris deal or pull out altogether -- a step which, based on the text of the deal, would take five years before it could be completed -- it would effectively neuter the agreement.
This is because the agreement does not enter into force until at least 55 countries representing 55% of global emissions formally "join" the agreement, and the U.S. is the world's number two emitter, and biggest historical emitter.
It would be most effective if more than 55 countries were to formally join and meet their commitments.
But even the agreement's non-binding emissions reduction pledges won't hold human-caused global warming below dangerous levels, according to numerous climate analyses.
The agreement has a goal of limiting warming to below 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, above preindustrial temperatures, while trying to go even lower, to 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, above preindustrial temperatures.
Yet the emissions reduction commitments offered so far would allow for around 3 degrees Celsius, or 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit, of warming through 2100.
Therefore, if the U.S. were to weaken the deal, the warming commitment would likely increase even more, likely dooming small island states to disappearing beneath rising seas and causing severe climate impacts worldwide.
The Paris deal is considered to be a landmark breakthrough in environmental diplomacy, since it is the first to commit every nation in the world, both developing and industrialized, to cutting greenhouse gas emissions and taking other actions to address global warming.
The agreement does not prescribe actions for countries to take. Instead, each nation volunteered its own plans and submitted them to the United Nations. More than 185 countries, including the U.S., have submitted such plans.
The U.S. pledged to cut emissions by 26 to 28% below 2005 levels by 2025.
Tony de Brum, ambassador for climate change for the Marshall Islands and a central player in negotiating the Paris pact, told ClimateWire that the agreement is in the U.S. best interest.
"The Paris Agreement is as much in the United States' interests as any other country," de Brum said. "Seeking to unravel it would not only threaten the U.S. economy, damage its environment and weaken its security, but it would do a great disservice to all of humanity."
Sharp contrast with Clinton, business groups
Trump's most likely opponent in the presidential race, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, is a supporter of the Paris Agreement who advocates cutting emissions by 80% below 2005 levels by the year 2050.
Assuming Clinton is the Democratic nominee, this position will offer voters an unusually stark choice in November when it comes to the environment.
Ironically, were Trump to be elected President, he would likely get the most pushback on the Paris Agreement from the private sector, rather than just environmentalists.
Major companies ranging from Apple to Microsoft to Target are acting to reduce their emissions and have publicly supported the Paris deal.
The fact is that there is a lot of money to be made in transitioning to a clean energy economy, a point that may carry more weight with Trump's business background than arguments about international environmental diplomacy.
Secretary of State John Kerry, who personally led the final grueling rounds of the talks in Paris, has described the agreement as critical for stimulating investments from the private sector to fuel low carbon growth in developed and developing nations.
"Government can provide the structure, the incentives, the framework," he said at a Bloomberg New Energy Finance conference in April. "But I know ... that it’s the private sector that will ultimately take us to the finish line."
"... clean energy is one of the greatest economic opportunities the world has ever seen, and more and more people are starting to realize that too," he said.
Topics Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Andrew Freedman is Mashable's Senior Editor for Science and Special Projects. Prior to working at Mashable, Freedman was a Senior Science writer for Climate Central. He has also worked as a reporter for Congressional Quarterly and Greenwire/E&E Daily. His writing has also appeared in the Washington Post, online at The Weather Channel, and washingtonpost.com, where he wrote a weekly climate science column for the "Capital Weather Gang" blog. He has provided commentary on climate science and policy for Sky News, CBC Radio, NPR, Al Jazeera, Sirius XM Radio, PBS NewsHour, and other national and international outlets. He holds a Masters in Climate and Society from Columbia University, and a Masters in Law and Diplomacy from The Fletcher School at Tufts University.
