'Wonder Woman' box office predictions are all over the place. It's complicated.

Put us down for somewhere north of $100 million.
 By 
Josh Dickey
 on 
Original image replaced with Mashable logo
Original image has been replaced. Credit: Mashable

Box office early tracking is like a broken clock -- there are times when either can be right.

So take this with a cinematic universe-sized grain of salt: Wonder Woman predictions for opening weekend in North America, which just started coming online this week, range from $65 million (modest, but acceptable) to over $100 million (still a bit soft, in my humble estimation).

The numbers come from a variety of reports published Thursday in the Hollywood trade press, including THR and Deadline -- which have it on the low end -- and TheWrap, which cites one "outlying" tracking service putting it at $105 million.

(Going purely on instinct here, I'd call that a lowball. Put me down for something creeping up on $110 million, a prediction I feel pretty confident about after years of playing this guessing-game.)

Keep this in mind: Early box office tracking is not meant to predict a film's outcome; it's meant to guide a studio's resource allocation in the late stages of movie marketing. If the bosses at DC/Warner Bros. don't like what the numbers say today, they can amp up their efforts to goose the result for its June 2 release.

"It could be a sensation," comScore analyst Paul Dergarabedian told Mashable. "Even if it opens at $65 [million], it could have long-term playability and I think the international numbers will be through the roof given the diverse cast, settings and Gal Gadot being red hot after BvS."

Meantime, we've been hearing some internet grousing about Wonder Woman's marketing not being all that robust so far -- but I'm not buying that. The good folks over at ScreenRant point out that the film is just being marketed differently, with all the focus on Gal Gadot's Diana of Themyscira, instead of a shotgunned mish-mash of character posters and garish branding partnerships (like with Suicide Squad).

Given that she was easily the most appealing thing about Batman v Superman, that's probably a good idea. And comScore's "Most Talked About Movies" index, based on recent social data, has WW popping well above movies like Spider-Man: Homecoming, Alien: Covenant and Blade Runner 2049, all of which had major marketing pushes in early May.

And yes, this is all important, because yes, the stakes are high. As my colleague, Mashable movies writer Angie Han, put it in a Slack conversation today:

The anxiety that WW isn't being marketed heavily enough makes perfect sense ... if WW bombs the lesson won't be "BVS and Suicide Squad ruined the brand" or "we should have marketed this harder" or even "maybe we should have made a better movie." There's a real risk that the takeaway will be "see, girl superhero movies don't sell."

Sadly, she's right.

That takeaway (which is just plain wrong -- good movies sell no matter the identifying qualities of their lead characters) will sadly endure until something distinctly proves otherwise. And by "distinctly," I mean a film that's not superhero-adjacent, like The Hunger Games or Lucy or The Force Awakens or even Ghostbusters, but one that's an actual, bona fide, comic book-based superhero.

The last couple of outings for such movies, Elektra and Catwoman, were used as ammunition in a now-infamous 2015 email from then-Marvel CEO Ike Perlmutter to then-Sony head Michael Lynton that was dug up after the Sony hack. The widely loathed Perlmutter (now severed from all moviemaking decisions, praise Odin) was being reductive, but he's not wrong about those movies being disastrous.

If Wonder Woman performs like I think it will, we can finally put that sort of wrongheaded thinking to rest once and for all. (There's good reason to think it can; the original Guardians of the Galaxy came on early tracking at $60 million, then opened to $94.3 million.)

And here's the good news: Even if Wonder Woman comes in at the low end of early-tracking expectations -- let's say just over $60 million in a worst-case scenario -- that still puts it on equal footing with character-franchise debuts for 2011 Marvel films Captain America: The First Avenger ($65 million) and Thor ($65.7 million), and better than 2015's Ant-Man ($57 million).

Here's betting it beats them all -- and even soars past last year's $85 million domestic start for Doctor Strange -- effectively opening the door for all manner of female-centered superhero movies to come.

And there will be so very many, for so very many years ... until you are dead and your children are old.

Mashable Image
Josh Dickey

Josh Dickey is Mashable's Entertainment Editor, leading Mashable's TV, music, gaming and sports reporters as well as writing movie features and reviews.Josh has been the Film Editor at Variety, Entertainment Editor at The Associated Press and Managing Editor at TheWrap.com.A finalist for the Los Angeles Press Club's Best Entertainment Feature in 2015 for "Everyone is Altered: The Secret Hollywood Procedure that Fooled Us for Years," Josh received his BA in Journalism from The University of Minnesota.In between screenings, he can be found skating longboards, shredding guitar and wandering the streets of his beloved downtown Los Angeles.

Mashable Potato

Recommended For You
Jimmy Kimmel has a blunt response to 'Melania' documentary box office numbers
A man in a suit stands on a talk show stage. The caption reads, "Speaking of rigged outcomes, the 'Melania' documentary..."

'Wonder Man' review: All hail the MCU's latest bromance
Ben Kingsley and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II in "Wonder Man."

My beloved air fryer is down to a new best price ever during Amazon's Spring Sale
Our Place Wonder Oven in yellow on countertop with teal dutch oven and cutting boards

Where to pre-order 'Super Mario Bros. Wonder' for the Nintendo Switch 2
super mario bros. wonder nintendo switch 2 edition + meetup in bellabel park cover against a pink and purple patterned background

The Nintendo Switch 2 upgrade for 'Super Mario Bros. Wonder' has a little bit for everyone
Super Mario Bros Wonder Bellabel Park screenshot

More in Entertainment
The Shark FlexStyle is our favorite Dyson Airwrap dupe, and it's $160 off at Amazon right now
The Shark FlexStyle Air Styling & Drying System against a colorful background.

Amazon's sister site is having a one-day sale, and this Bissell TurboClean deal is too good to skip
A woman using the Bissell TurboClean Cordless Hard Floor Cleaner Mop and Lightweight Wet/Dry Vacuum.

The best smartwatch you've never heard of is on sale for less than $50
Nothing CMF Watch 3 Pro in light green with blue and green abstract background

Reddit r/all takes another step into the grave
Reddit logo on phone screen

Take back your screen from ads and trackers with this $16 tool
AdGuard Family Plan: Lifetime Subscription

Trending on Mashable
NYT Connections hints today: Clues, answers for April 3, 2026
Connections game on a smartphone

Wordle today: Answer, hints for April 3, 2026
Wordle game on a smartphone


NYT Connections hints today: Clues, answers for April 2, 2026
Connections game on a smartphone

Wordle today: Answer, hints for April 2, 2026
Wordle game on a smartphone
The biggest stories of the day delivered to your inbox.
These newsletters may contain advertising, deals, or affiliate links. By clicking Subscribe, you confirm you are 16+ and agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
Thanks for signing up. See you at your inbox!