Going to 11: 'La La Land' will tie the record for most Academy Awards (and destroy everything in its path)
Here's a question for ones who dream: Why are Oscar records made?
La La Land, nominated for 14 Academy Awards, isn't likely to break the Oscars record of 11 wins by a single film, shared by Titanic (1997), The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the Kingf (2003), and Ben-Hur (1959). That record might not be made to be broken this year -- but it can be tied.
A bit of madness is indeed key to this prediction for the 89th Academy Awards: La La Land will join those hallowed films in sharing the record by going to 11.
For one thing, it's got sheer numbers. La La Land's 14 nominations were a record of their own; only All About Eve (1950) and Titanic have ever come up for that many. Then there's the record seven Golden Globe wins, a clean sweep that hardly anyone saw coming.
People who love La La Land really, really love La La Land
The bitter backlash to La La Land that's been building for weeks doesn't stand a chance against the bulwark of passion for writer/director Damien Chazelle's modern-yet-throwbacky musical. This is no "safe" or "consensus" winner. People who love La La Land really, really love La La Land.
That kind of devotion means lots of first-place votes and straight-ticket check-offs through the more technical categories.
Two of La La Land's nominations are in the same category— best original song—meaning the most it could win is 13. But it won't, because there are two categories where it just doesn't have the goods: Best Actor (Ryan Gosling) and Best Original Screenplay (Chazelle).
Gosling's Seb is a career-making charm-a-thon, but it can't hang in this category, which will go to Denzel Washington for Fences. That much-deserved win will be seen by some as an upset of early front-runner Casey Affleck, whose performance in Manchester by the Sea was a master class in subtlety. But his chances flagged after civil sexual harassment lawsuits that he settled in 2010 were first resurfaced (by Mashable) in September.
Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester screenplay, meanwhile, was upset by Chazelle at the Globes, but that won't happen on Sunday. La La Land lines will be celebrated and quoted for decades to come, but Academy voters like a big ladle of gravitas on their original scripts.
That leaves 11 nominations for La La Land to convert.
And here they are, ordered from most difficult to least:
11. Sound Editing
The contenders: Sully, Hacksaw Ridge, Deep Water Horizon, Arrival Why La La wins: This category awards the creation and design of sound -- effects, ambient noise, and yes, to some degree, music -- but it's often weighted toward degree-of-difficulty. Hacksaw Ridge creates a war zone and Arrival creates an alien language, making this a perilous category for La La Land. But its jewel-toned musical cues will keep fans in line here, and that should be enough.
10. Sound Mixing
The contenders: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Rogue One, 13 Hours Why La La wins: This category is for the final post-production blend, which a mixer finesses from the creations of the sound editor. La La Land wins for the exact reasons mentioned above.
9. Cinematography
The contenders: Arrival, Lion, Moonlight, Silence Why La La wins: It'll be close. Linus Sandgren's camera twirls and dances right along with Seb and Mia, exploring spaces and whip-panning with big payoffs -- but there are some odd out-of-focus moments and barely-correctible darkness issues in the now-famed opening sequence. But this category is typically awarded to the most noticeable and risk-taking work. Advantage: La La Land.
8. Costume Design
The contenders: Allied, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Jackie Why La La wins: Jackie is favored by some for this category, but let's face it: you remember Jackie O's outfits because of Jackie O -- Jackie is a recreation. You remember Mia's yellow dress and Seb's black-on-white wingtips because those were cool choices.
7. Film Editing
The contenders: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Moonlight Why La La wins: Moonlight is a major threat here; Barry Jenkins' lovely tryptich could have been choppy or jarring in the wrong hands, but instead the three stages of life it depicts feel somehow like a flowing memory. La La pulls this out for degree of difficulty and old-school, hand-made marriage of music and indelible images.
6. Production Design
The contenders: Arrival, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Hail, Caesar!, Passengers Why La La wins: Um. One of the contenders is Passengers. And every shot of La La Land is like a valentine to Los Angeles. You know, where Academy members live.
5. Best Actress
The contenders: Isabelle Huppert, Elle; Ruth Negga, Loving; Natalie Portman, Jackie; Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins Why Emma Stone wins: Gosling might've held up his end of the bargain with competition this weak. Huppert has a support base, but as someone recently said, "the Academy loves ingenues." Do they ever.
4. Best Director
The contenders: Denis Villeneuve, Arrival; Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge; Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea; Barry Jenkins, Moonlight Why Chazelle wins: Jenkins is considered a threat -- and he should be. But ... pishy-caca. Chazelle took the Director's Guild Award and this award is firmly his to lose. And that's a great thing! As one inspiringly hopeful Oscar observer (and Jenkins backer) told me: "I'm thinking of this as Game 1 between Barry and Damien in a 7-game series. Damien will probably pull it out even without playing the best game." Sounds like the start of something wonderful and new, no?
3. Original Song
The contenders: "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls; "The Empty Chair," Jim: The James Foley Story; "How Far I'll Go," Moana Why La La wins: "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" and "City of Stars" are competing against one another here, but no matter: "City of Stars" will prevail -- it serves as the film's de facto theme and is one point a duet. Sorry Lin-Manuel Miranda, but that EGOT will have to wait.
2. Original Score
The contenders: Jackie, Lion, Moonlight, Passengers Why La La wins: Please. Passengers? Corniest score of the year. Jackie was scored like an irritating horror film. And at last check, Lion and Moonlight were not already-beloved musicals. Which leads us to the biggest slam-dunk of them all:
1. Best Picture
The contenders: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Hidden Figures Why La La wins: This one's in the bag. Enjoy the show!
Topics Oscars
Josh Dickey is Mashable's Entertainment Editor, leading Mashable's TV, music, gaming and sports reporters as well as writing movie features and reviews.Josh has been the Film Editor at Variety, Entertainment Editor at The Associated Press and Managing Editor at TheWrap.com.A finalist for the Los Angeles Press Club's Best Entertainment Feature in 2015 for "Everyone is Altered: The Secret Hollywood Procedure that Fooled Us for Years," Josh received his BA in Journalism from The University of Minnesota.In between screenings, he can be found skating longboards, shredding guitar and wandering the streets of his beloved downtown Los Angeles.
